VEON’s Q1 2025 Results: A Crossroads of Growth and Geopolitical Gambits

VEON, the multinational telecom operator with a focus on emerging markets, is set to release its first-quarter 2025 trading update on May 15, 2025. This report will serve as a critical litmus test for the company’s ability to balance rapid digital growth against the headwinds of geopolitical instability. With stakes as high as its valuation, VEON’s results will illuminate whether its strategic bets—from Ukraine’s Nasdaq listing to its $1 billion infrastructure push—are paying off.

The Momentum of Digital Services

VEON’s recent financial trajectory has been driven by its pivot to digital services, a shift that now accounts for 12.6% of total revenue. In 2024, direct digital revenue surged 63% year-over-year to $460 million, fueled by platforms like Kyivstar’s healthcare service Helsi (28 million users) and streaming service Kyivstar TV (2 million monthly users). This growth isn’t just about diversifying revenue streams; it’s a lifeline in markets where traditional telecom margins are thin.

Analysts project Q1 2025 revenue of $996 million, a 0.2% dip from Q4 2024’s $998 million but a 5.7% rise from the prior-year quarter. The consensus EPS estimate of $0.83 reflects cautious optimism, though it’s down from Q4’s $0.98, which beat expectations.

The Ukraine Gambit: Nasdaq Listing and Satellite Partnerships

VEON’s most daring move is its plan to list Kyivstar, Ukraine’s largest telecom, on Nasdaq via a SPAC merger with Cohen Circle Acquisition Corp. The $2.21 billion valuation underscores Kyivstar’s role as a symbol of Ukraine’s economic resilience. The listing, expected in Q3 2025, would make Kyivstar the first U.S.-listed “pure play” Ukrainian investment, attracting capital to rebuild the war-torn nation.

But success hinges on execution. VEON must navigate regulatory hurdles, geopolitical tensions, and investor skepticism about Ukraine’s stability. Already, the company has partnered with Starlink to deploy direct-to-cell satellite connectivity, a critical step in securing Kyivstar’s infrastructure against ongoing conflict. The $1 billion investment in Ukrainian telecom infrastructure by 2027 further signals long-term commitment.

Bangladesh: A Market in Flux

While Ukraine dominates headlines, VEON’s operations in Bangladesh—its sixth-largest market—face an uncertain backdrop. The text notes “political unrest” but lacks specifics, raising questions about operational risks. Bangladesh, which accounts for 14% of VEON’s total revenue, remains a key battleground for digital services. However, without clarity on how VEON is mitigating political volatility, investors may grow wary.

Financial Fortitude or Fragility?

VEON’s financial health is a mixed picture. Its net debt-to-EBITDA ratio improved to 1.3x in 2024, down from 3x in 2021, thanks to offloading Russian assets. Cash reserves of $1.7 billion provide a buffer, but capital expenditures in Ukraine could strain liquidity. Meanwhile, EBITDA margins are under pressure: guidance for 2025 calls for 13%–15% growth, but inflation and CapEx could narrow the gap.

The Analysts’ Verdict: Buy with Caution

Analysts maintain a “Buy” consensus, citing VEON’s digital growth and financial discipline. The stock’s price target, however, remains undefined due to geopolitical uncertainties. The risks are clear: a delayed Kyivstar listing, Bangladesh instability, or a revenue miss in Q1 could trigger a sell-off. Yet, the company’s ability to turn Kyivstar into a Nasdaq success story—and its $460 million digital revenue run rate—argue for patience.

Conclusion: A High-Stakes Quarter for High Reward

VEON’s Q1 2025 results will be a bellwether for its dual-track strategy: leveraging digital services to drive growth while navigating geopolitical minefields. With Kyivstar’s Nasdaq listing on the horizon and a $1 billion bet on Ukraine’s telecom future, the company is gambling big on markets where others fear to tread.

The numbers back this ambition: 63% digital revenue growth in 2024 and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio halved in three years suggest resilience. Yet, a $0.83 EPS beat might not be enough to silence skeptics. Investors should watch for two key metrics: whether Ukraine’s digital services continue their meteoric rise and if Bangladesh’s political clouds don’t rain on VEON’s parade.

In the end, VEON’s May 15 update will decide whether it’s a telecom titan or a geopolitical risk taker—no small distinction in today’s markets.

Disclosure: This analysis is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as financial advice. Investors should conduct their own due diligence.