VEON Plunges 7.45%, What's Fueling This Sudden Downturn?

Summary
• VEON’s Kyivstar secures Starlink Direct-to-Cell regulatory approval in Ukraine
• New office in Almaty and $35M share buyback program announced
• Stock plummets to $50.63, down 7.45% from $54.71 with intraday low at $49.00
• Technical indicators show bearish Marubozu candlestick and expanding Bollinger Bands

VEON’s dramatic intraday selloff has sent shockwaves through the telecom sector. Despite recent strategic advancements like Kyivstar’s Starlink integration and a new Almaty office, the stock has cratered to $50.63, trading far below its 52-week low of $25.92. The move coincides with bearish technical signals, including a bearish Marubozu pattern and expanding Bollinger Bands, raising questions about short-term volatility and investor sentiment.

Bearish Momentum Intensifies as Technical Indicators Signal Downtrend
VEON’s 7.45% intraday decline is driven by a confluence of bearish technical signals and liquidity pressures. The 15-minute chart shows a bearish Marubozu candlestick pattern at 11:30 AM, indicating strong selling pressure without a wick. Bollinger Bands have expanded downward, suggesting a widening price range amid heightened volatility. Additionally, the RSI (63.45) and MACD (2.55) suggest momentum is shifting decisively lower. While recent news like Kyivstar’s Starlink testing and a $35M share buyback are positive, they’ve failed to offset the technical bear case, which points to continuation of the downtrend.

Options Playbook: High-Leverage Puts and Strategic Calls for Volatility
• 200-day average: $42.54 (below current price)
• RSI: 63.45 (neutral to bearish)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper $59.71, Middle $51.08, Lower $42.45 (price near lower band)
• MACD: 2.55 (bullish divergence fading)

Key levels to watch: Support at $42.45 (lower Bollinger Band) and resistance at $51.08 (middle Bollinger Band). Short-term bearish momentum favors a continuation below $49.00, with potential to test the 52-week low. The options chain highlights two high-leverage plays:

• VEON20250815P45 (Put, $45 strike, 08/15 expiry):
- IV: 36.22% (moderate)
- Leverage: 1025.50% (extreme)
- Delta: -0.032964 (deep out-of-the-money)
- Theta: -0.004162 (slow decay)
- Gamma: 0.019535 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 0 (low liquidity)
This put offers outsized leverage if VEON breaks below $45, but liquidity risks are high due to zero turnover.

• VEON20250919C45 (Call, $45 strike, 09/19 expiry):
- IV: 98.65% (very high)
- Leverage: 4.79% (moderate)
- Delta: 0.711057 (high probability of in-the-money)
- Theta: -0.086492 (rapid decay)
- Gamma: 0.018252 (moderate sensitivity)
- Turnover: 0 (low liquidity)
This call could capitalize on a rebound above $45, but theta decay and liquidity constraints pose challenges.

Aggressive bears may consider VEON20250815P45 into a breakdown below $45, while VEON20250919C45 offers a speculative long play if the stock recovers. However, both contracts face liquidity hurdles.

Backtest VEON Stock Performance
The backtest of VEON's performance after a -7% intraday plunge shows mixed results over different time frames. While the stock typically rebounds in the short term, the overall returns are modest, with a maximum return of 7.26% over 30 days.

Urgent Action: Position for Volatility as VEON Tests Key Supports
VEON’s 7.45% selloff is a high-volatility event driven by bearish technical signals and weak liquidity in options. The stock’s descent to $50.63 near the lower Bollinger Band ($42.45) suggests further downside risks, particularly if the $45 level breaks. Short-term traders should monitor the 08/15 put chain for a sharp move, while longer-term players may watch the sector leader Verizon (VZ) at -0.16% to gauge broader market sentiment. Immediate action includes securing high-leverage puts or hedging long positions as the 52-week low ($25.92) looms. Watch for $45 breakdown or regulatory follow-through in Kyivstar’s Starlink integration.