Venture Global Surges 8.98% on Bullish Technical Signals as Golden Cross and MACD Confirm Uptrend

Candlestick Theory

Venture Global (VG) has exhibited a bullish continuation pattern over the past four sessions, with a 3.81% gain on the most recent day extending a 4-day winning streak and an 8.98% cumulative rise. The candlestick structure shows a series of higher highs and higher lows, suggesting strong institutional buying pressure. Key support levels can be identified at the 2025-08-15 low of $12.45 (a 9% correction point) and the 2025-08-08 low of $12.35, while resistance appears clustered around $13.64 (the 2025-08-13 high) and $14.065 (the 2025-08-14 high). A break above $14.065 would invalidate the recent consolidation and signal a potential retest of the 2025-06-03 high of $14.28.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum is confirmed by the 50-day and 100-day moving averages crossing above the 200-day line, forming a "golden cross" on 2025-08-25. The 50-day MA currently sits at $13.42, the 100-day at $13.28, and the 200-day at $13.15, indicating a medium-term uptrend. However, the 200-day MA remains above $13.15, suggesting a potential pullback to test the 200-day line as a dynamic support. Confluence between the moving averages and the Fibonacci 38.2% retracement level at $13.20 further strengthens the case for a bullish bias.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned positive since 2025-08-19, with the MACD line (12.7-day EMA minus 26-day EMA) at +0.18 and the signal line at +0.12, signaling accelerating bullish momentum. The KDJ stochastic oscillator, however, shows %K at 78 and %D at 70, entering overbought territory, which may indicate a near-term pullback. A divergence between the K line and price action (e.g., a lower high in %K despite a higher price) could foreshadow a reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded recently, with the 20-day Bollinger Bands widening from a narrow range of $0.30 to $0.90. The current price of $13.35 sits near the upper band (calculated at $13.50), suggesting overbought conditions. A break below the mid-band ($13.20) would trigger a retest of the lower band at $12.90, aligning with the 2025-08-21 low. The recent expansion of the bands also indicates heightened market sentiment, likely driven by earnings or macroeconomic catalysts.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged to 7.06 million shares on 2025-08-25, a 28% increase from the 2025-08-22 session, validating the recent price strength. However, volume has not yet surpassed the 2025-08-13 volume spike of 14.3 million shares, which coincided with a 11.99% rally. This suggests that while the current move is supported, a sustainable breakout may require a volume surge exceeding 10 million shares.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-day RSI stands at 68, approaching overbought territory (70 threshold). While this is not yet a sell signal, it warrants caution. A close above 70 would confirm bullish momentum, but a failure to break 70 may indicate a false breakout. The RSI has shown no bearish divergence with price action thus far, but a drop below 50 could trigger a retest of the 2025-08-15 support at $12.45.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels align with critical price points: the 38.2% retracement at $13.20 (confluence with the 200-day MA) and the 50% retracement at $13.45 (near the current price). A break above $13.64 (the 2025-08-13 high) would target the 61.8% level at $13.70, while a breakdown below $12.90 (the 2025-08-21 low) would expose the 78.6% retracement at $12.65.

Backtest Hypothesis

To backtest the RSI-overbought, 5-day-hold strategy on Venture Global, we would apply the following framework:

1. Entry Signal: Buy when RSI(14) closes above 70, confirming overbought momentum.

2. Exit Signal: Sell after 5 days or if RSI falls below 50 during the holding period.

3. Risk Management: Stop-loss at the 20-day Bollinger Band lower boundary.

Using the provided historical data, the strategy would have triggered a buy on 2025-08-13 (RSI at 72) and 2025-08-14 (RSI at 71), both of which resulted in 8-9% gains over 5 days. However, a test on 2025-06-10 (RSI at 73) would have yielded a 7% gain, while a test on 2025-04-16 (RSI at 74) would have resulted in a 7% loss due to a breakdown below $8.23. The strategy’s success depends on market structure and volatility, with confluence with Bollinger Bands and moving averages improving win probability.