Venture Global Surges 3.30% on Bullish Hammer Pattern as Technical Indicators Signal Continued Uptrend

Venture Global (VG) has experienced a 3.30% increase in the most recent session, extending a two-day rally with a cumulative gain of 3.68%. This upward momentum is supported by a hammer candlestick pattern on September 16, 2025, characterized by a long lower shadow and a close near the high, suggesting potential bullish reversal. Key support levels are identified at $13.53 (September 15 low) and $13.27 (September 9 low), while resistance aligns with the recent high of $14.1399 (September 16). The price action indicates a possible short-term consolidation phase after the sharp 5.12% surge on September 10, with the 50-day moving average (calculated at approximately $14.05) currently intersecting with the 100-day and 200-day averages ($14.30 and $14.50, respectively), signaling a potential trend flattening.

Candlestick Theory

The hammer pattern on September 16, coupled with a bullish engulfing pattern on September 10 (a large green candle following a red one), highlights strong buying pressure at key support levels. A breakdown below $13.27 would invalidate the bullish case, while a breakout above $14.1399 could target the next resistance at $14.35 (a prior high from August 25). The absence of bearish patterns like shooting stars or evening doji suggests the downtrend from mid-June to August has lost momentum, with the current price action favoring a continuation of the recent recovery.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum is confirmed by the 50-day MA crossing above the 100-day MA, forming a golden cross, though the 200-day MA remains a critical hurdle. The stock’s closing price of $14.1 is slightly below the 50-day MA, indicating a potential pullback to test the 50-day line for support. If the 50-day MA holds, it could act as a dynamic support level, reinforcing the bullish bias. However, a sustained close below the 100-day MA ($14.30) would signal a return to a bearish bias, aligning with the broader 2025-2026 context of a multi-month consolidation after a sharp 36% decline in early March.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has transitioned from negative to positive territory, with the MACD line crossing above the signal line on September 16, confirming a short-term bullish crossover. The KDJ indicator shows stochastic values of 75 (K) and 65 (D), nearing overbought territory, suggesting a potential pullback. However, the RSI (discussed in a separate section) remains below 70, indicating the uptrend may persist. Divergence between the KDJ and RSI metrics—where KDJ suggests overbought conditions but RSI does not—points to a mixed signal, with the RSI’s neutrality suggesting the uptrend could extend further.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded in recent sessions, with the bands widening to 0.55 (20-day standard deviation) as of September 16. The current price of $14.1 sits near the upper band, suggesting a potential reversion to the mean. If the price closes below the middle band (20-day SMA at $14.00), it could trigger a short-term correction. The contraction of the bands in early September (narrowing to 0.30 on September 12) preceded the recent rally, a classic “calm before the storm” pattern often preceding a breakout.

Volume-Price Relationship

Trading volume has surged to 6.59 million on September 16, a 15% increase from the prior day’s 6.12 million, validating the recent price action. However, the volume-to-price ratio (91.98 million in trading value) remains below the 20-day average of 100 million, suggesting the rally may lack broad institutional participation. A sustained volume spike above 7 million would be required to confirm a breakout above $14.35.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI stands at 60, reflecting moderate bullish momentum without entering overbought territory. A close above 70 would signal an overbought condition, potentially triggering profit-taking. Conversely, a drop below 50 would indicate weakening momentum. The RSI’s alignment with the MACD’s bullish crossover suggests the uptrend is still intact, though the lack of a clear oversold reading (below 30) implies the recent rally is more of a correction than a full trend reversal.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the March 2025 low of $8.39 to the June 2025 high of $24.00 include 61.8% at $14.80, 50% at $16.20, and 38.2% at $17.70. The current price of $14.1 aligns with the 38.2% retracement level, which has historically acted as a dynamic support/resistance. A breakout above $14.80 would target the 50% level, while a breakdown below $13.27 would test the 23.6% retracement at $13.10.

Backtest Hypothesis

The hammer pattern strategy, which involves buying on confirmed hammer formations and exiting upon pattern breakdown or a new hammer’s formation, has demonstrated robust performance from 2022 to the present. This approach generated a 172.02% return, significantly outperforming the benchmark’s 34.58%. The strategy’s 137.45% excess return and 31.23% CAGR underscore its effectiveness in capturing trend reversals, particularly in volatile markets like Venture Global’s 2025 trajectory. The zero maximum drawdown and 1.10 Sharpe ratio further validate its risk-adjusted returns. Integrating this strategy with the current technical setup—where a hammer pattern coincides with Fibonacci and moving average support—suggests a high-probability trade entry, provided volume confirms the pattern’s validity.