Venture Global Shares Plunge 7.53% as Bearish Technical Indicators Confirm Downtrend

Candlestick Theory

Venture Global’s recent price action reveals a bearish breakdown, with a 7.53% drop to $12.90, forming a large-bodied candle with a short upper wick. This pattern, combined with prior consolidation around $13.95–$14.22, suggests key support levels at $13.95 (prior close) and $13.78 (October 2 low). The breakdown below these levels may indicate a shift in sentiment, with sellers dominating. The absence of a strong bullish reversal pattern (e.g., hammer or bullish engulfing) reinforces the bearish bias, while the $12.82 low could serve as a near-term target if momentum persists.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term and long-term moving averages align with a bearish trend. The 50-day MA (~$14.12), 100-day MA (~$13.91), and 200-day MA (~$13.91) all sit above the current price, forming a descending bias. The 50-day MA crossing below the 200-day MA (death cross) in early September further solidified the downtrend. Price remains below all three, indicating weak near-term momentum. A retest of the 50-day MA ($14.12) could trigger a rally, but a sustained close above this level is improbable without a reversal in broader market conditions.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has expanded into negative territory, reflecting accelerating bearish momentum. A bearish crossover of the MACD line below the signal line in early October confirmed the downtrend. The KDJ oscillator shows K (~25) well below D (~40), signaling oversold conditions. However, K’s failure to cross above D despite the sharp decline suggests waning buying interest. Divergence between price and momentum indicators (e.g., lower highs in price with higher lows in KDJ) is minimal, but the current oversold reading (K=25) may hint at a short-term bounce, though this is unlikely to reverse the primary downtrend.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded sharply, with the bands widening as the price approached the lower band ($12.82). This contraction-expansion pattern often precedes a directional move, and the current position near the lower band supports continued downward pressure. The middle band (~$13.50) could act as a dynamic resistance if the price attempts a rebound, but a sustained move above it would require a breakout in volume or a shift in broader market sentiment.

Volume-Price Relationship

Volume surged during the recent 7.53% drop, validating the bearish move. The October 7 session’s volume (8.8 million shares) was nearly double the prior week’s average, indicating strong selling conviction. However, volume has been mixed in recent weeks, with muted sessions following sharp declines (e.g., October 3). This suggests potential exhaustion in the short term, though the overall volume trend remains bearish. A sharp spike in volume on a rebound could signal a reversal, but current conditions favor continuation of the downtrend.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The RSI stands at 27.22, confirming an oversold condition. While this typically suggests a potential rebound, the RSI has remained in oversold territory for several sessions, indicating a strong downtrend. Divergence between price and RSI (e.g., lower lows in price without corresponding RSI lows) is limited, but the current oversold level should be treated with caution—oversold readings can persist in strong downtrends. A move above 30 would signal a potential short-term recovery, but a sustained break above 40 is necessary to confirm a reversal.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the September 22 high ($14.72) to the October 7 low ($12.90) include 61.8% ($13.38) and 50% ($13.81). The price is currently near the 61.8% retracement level, which could offer temporary support. A breakdown below this would target the 38.2% level ($13.56), but a failure to hold above $13.38 would reinforce the bearish outlook. The 50% level may act as a psychological barrier, but its relevance is diminished in a strong downtrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest of a strategy buying Venture Global when RSI falls below 30 and selling when it rises above 70 would require historical RSI data. Given the current RSI at 27.22, a hypothetical buy signal is generated, but the broader bearish context (descending moving averages, weak volume, and Bollinger Band positioning) suggests the trade carries elevated risk. Historical data would be needed to assess the strategy’s profitability, as oversold conditions in a strong downtrend often fail to produce reliable rebounds.