Venture Global Shares Drop 6.39% Amid Bearish Engulfing Pattern and Bearish Crossover Trend, Key Support at $13.75 in Focus

Candlestick Theory

Venture Global (VG) recently closed at $13.78, down 6.39% from the previous day’s high of $14.72, forming a bearish engulfing pattern amid a sharp decline. Key support levels emerge at $13.75 (a prior low from 2025-10-02) and $13.25 (2025-09-19), with resistance at $14.72 (2025-10-01). A breakdown below $13.75 could trigger further bearish momentum, while a rebound above $14.22 (2025-09-29) may indicate short-term stabilization.

Moving Average Theory

Short-term momentum (50-day MA at ~$14.20) has crossed below the 100-day MA (~$14.55) and 200-day MA (~$14.85), signaling a bearish crossover trend. The price currently trades below all three averages, reinforcing a downtrend. A sustained move above the 50-day MA could attract near-term buyers, but the broader bearish alignment suggests continued pressure until a reversal is confirmed.

MACD & KDJ Indicators

The MACD histogram has turned negative, with the line crossing below the signal line, indicating weakening bullish momentum. The KDJ stochastic oscillator shows %K (~25) and %D (~30), suggesting oversold conditions. However, a bearish divergence in the KDJ (price lows rising while %K remains below %D) raises caution about a false rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility has expanded, with the 20-day Bollinger Bands widening to $13.75 (lower band) and $14.85 (upper band). The price currently hovers near the lower band, aligning with oversold readings. A break below $13.75 could trigger a short-term rebound, but sustained trading within the band may indicate a continuation of consolidation.

Volume-Price Relationship

The recent 6.39% decline was accompanied by elevated volume (5.44 million shares), validating the bearish move. However, volume has trended higher during recent declines (e.g., 5.44 million vs. 4.61 million on 2025-10-01), suggesting selling pressure. Conversely, volume dipped during smaller gains, indicating weak conviction in upside attempts.

Relative Strength Index (RSI)

The 14-period RSI stands at ~28, entering oversold territory. Historically, such levels often precede rebounds, but a divergence between RSI lows and price lows (e.g., RSI bottomed at 28 on 2025-10-02 vs. 24 on 2025-09-19) suggests caution. A close above 30 may signal short-term recovery, but a failure to hold above 30 could extend the decline.

Fibonacci Retracement

Key Fibonacci levels from the 2025-06-24 high ($19.01) to the 2025-04-03 low ($8.98) include 23.6% at $15.19, 38.2% at $14.31, and 50% at $13.99. The current price near $13.78 aligns with the 61.8% retracement level ($13.50), offering potential support. A breakdown below this could target the 76.4% level at $12.95.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy leverages RSI-based signals (buy at <30, sell at >70) from 2022 to 2025. Historical data shows 139.45% total returns vs. 47.07% for the benchmark, with a 28.08% CAGR. However, the strategy’s Sharpe ratio (0.49) and 57.07% volatility highlight its high-risk nature. Recent insider selling (e.g., $13.7M by CCO Earl Thomas in September 2025) introduces uncertainty, as does the company’s debt burden. While RSI oversold conditions (e.g., 28 in October 2025) suggest potential rebounds, confluence with bearish MACD and volume patterns implies caution.