Venture Global: A Dip in Price, a Dive into LNG Opportunity

The energy sector’s volatility has created a rare buying opportunity in Venture Global (NYSE: VG), where near-term headwinds are overbaked into its valuation. Despite recent dips, the company’s 2025 EBITDA guidance of $6.8–$7.4 billion and its unmatched LNG capacity expansion strategy position it to outpace market skepticism. Here’s why investors should buy the dip now.

1. EBITDA Guidance Shatters Street Expectations—But the Market Isn’t Pricing It In

Venture Global’s revised 2025 EBITDA range of $6.8–$7.4 billion is a stark rebuttal to Wall Street’s conservative estimates. Analysts, still digesting 2024’s LNG price declines, have yet to fully factor in the company’s operational turnaround. For context, Q1 2025 results already delivered $1.35 billion in EBITDA, up 94% year-over-year, fueled by record LNG exports (234 TBtu, a 62% YoY surge).

The disconnect is clear: VG’s stock has dropped 25% since January 2025, despite hitting these milestones. Why? Near-term noise—like Plaquemines’ $2.8 billion rectification costs and CP2’s regulatory hurdles—has overshadowed the long-term upside.

2. Plaquemines’ 140% Efficiency: The Secret Weapon for Spot-Market Profits

The Plaquemines Project’s 18 liquefaction trains, running at 140% of nameplate capacity, are a marvel of operational efficiency. This overperformance allows Venture Global to lock in $7.94/MMBtu fixed fees on 78 contracted cargos while leveraging spot-market arbitrage. With global LNG prices rebounding (European TTF at $25/MMBtu in Q1 2025 vs. $18/MMBtu in 2024), the company can capitalize on price spikes.

The math is compelling: For every $1/MMBtu increase in liquefaction fees, EBITDA gains $625 million–$675 million. With TTF and JKM benchmarks stabilizing above $20/MMBtu, this isn’t just theoretical—it’s baked into 2025’s upper guidance.

3. CP2’s FID: A Bridge to $7+Billion Margins and European Demand

The $18 billion CP2 project, now 40% complete, is nearing Final Investment Decision (FID) after securing a $3.0 billion credit facility and FERC approval. While critics focus on its $25.9 billion market cap versus $29.1 billion in debt, they overlook the modular design that reduces execution risk.

CP2’s 36 trains will add 20 million metric tons per annum (MTPA) of capacity by 2027, directly targeting Europe’s $400 billion LNG import market. Post-Ukraine war, European buyers are locking in long-term contracts with U.S. suppliers, and Venture Global’s contracted backlog (100% of nameplate capacity) ensures demand visibility.

The short-term cost overruns? Already factored in. The $500 million in 2025 development expenses are a drop in the bucket compared to the $6.8–$7.4 billion EBITDA runway ahead.

4. $3.6 Billion in Cash: A Cushion Against Volatility

Venture Global’s $3.6 billion cash balance and $25.9 billion market cap provide a fortress-like balance sheet. Even with CP2’s $2.8 billion rectification costs and Plaquemines’ 2024 revenue slump ($1.5 billion vs. $5.0 billion in 2023), the company has the liquidity to weather storms.

Compare this to peers like Cheniere Energy, which relies on equity markets for funding—Venture Global’s self-financed model is a strategic moat.

Conclusion: Near-Term Risks Are Overbaked—Buy VG Now

The dips in Venture Global’s stock price are a gift. The company is executing flawlessly on its LNG expansion, with Plaquemines’ 140% efficiency and CP2’s FID momentum creating a $7 billion+ EBITDA machine. Meanwhile, its cash reserves and spot-market agility insulate it from near-term hiccups.

The skeptics focus on LNG price volatility, regulatory delays, and debt—yet these risks are already priced into the stock. With European LNG demand set to grow 25% by 2030, Venture Global’s scale and contractual strength make it a decade-long energy infrastructure play.

Act now. The next move higher is already in the cards.