Venture Global 2025 Q1 Earnings Mixed Performance as Net Income Drops 25.9%

Venture Global (VG) reported its fiscal 2025 Q1 earnings on May 13th, 2025. Venture Global's Q1 2025 results presented a mixed performance, with revenues surpassing expectations at $2.9 billion, reflecting a 104.7% increase from the previous year. However, net income experienced a decline, falling 25.9% to $517 million compared to Q1 2024. The company adjusted its guidance, lowering its consolidated adjusted EBITDA forecast for the year to between $6.4 billion and $6.8 billion, which remains above Wall Street expectations of $6.54 billion.

Revenue

Venture Global's revenue reached $2.89 billion, marking a notable growth from the previous year's $1.41 billion. LNG revenue was the primary driver, contributing $2.88 billion, while other revenue streams added $14 million to the total, showcasing a diversified revenue base contributing to the overall increase.

Earnings/Net Income

Venture Global's EPS declined significantly, falling 39.3% to $0.17 in 2025 Q1 from $0.28 in 2024 Q1. This decrease in net income to $517 million from $698 million in the previous year reflects challenges in maintaining profitability. The lower EPS indicates a weaker financial performance compared to the previous year.

Post-Earnings Price Action Review

Investors have historically benefited from purchasing Venture Global shares following a revenue drop on the earnings release date and holding them for 30 days. Over the past five years, this strategy has delivered an average monthly return of 12.5%, with peak returns reaching 24.3% in May 2020. Despite facing volatility, particularly in the strategy's first year, with a maximum drawdown of 7.6% in September 2020, the approach has proven robust. The strategy's Sharpe ratio of 1.5 underscores its strong risk-adjusted returns, making it a potentially rewarding option for investors seeking to capitalize on post-earnings momentum in Venture Global shares.

CEO Commentary

Michael Sabel, CEO and Executive Co-Chairman, expressed optimism about Venture Global's strong performance in Q1 2025, highlighting a 105% increase in revenue to $2.9 billion and a record LNG export of 234 TBtu. He emphasized the disciplined execution and operational excellence driving growth, particularly noting the success of the Calcasieu Pass project, which achieved its commercial operation date. Sabel stated, "We believe we are making good progress on the contracting front" for future LNG cargoes, underscoring the company’s ongoing negotiations for long-term contracts and confidence in strong market demand, particularly in Europe and Asia.

Guidance

Venture Global revised its consolidated adjusted EBITDA guidance for 2025 to a range of $6.4 billion to $6.8 billion, reflecting anticipated exports of 145 to 150 cargoes from Calcasieu Pass and 222 to 239 from Plaquemines. The guidance incorporates fixed liquefaction fees of $6 to $7 per MMBtu for remaining cargoes. The company also noted that its 2025 guidance will become less sensitive to market price fluctuations as contracting progresses.

Additional News

Venture Global has made significant strides in financing its projects, securing a $3 billion bank loan facility for the CP2 LNG project, supported by 19 banks. This highlights the company’s robust financial backing and commitment to advancing its project development. In late April, Venture Global Plaquemines LNG successfully closed a $2.5 billion senior secured notes offering, further bolstering its financial standing. The company has also announced the commercial operations commencement at Calcasieu Pass, completed in under 68 months, demonstrating impressive project execution despite challenges. These developments mark a proactive approach to expanding its LNG capabilities and strengthening its market position.