Velocity Financial (VEL) Soars 14.27% in Four Days, Hits 2025 High

Velocity Financial (VEL) shares surged 0.58% today, marking the fourth consecutive day of gains, with a cumulative increase of 14.27% over the past four days. The stock price reached its highest level since March 2025, with an intraday gain of 2.31%.

Velocity Financial Inc. (VEL) experienced a notable high stock price of $17.57 on May 13, 2025. To backtest the impact of this high point on future price movements, we analyzed the stock's performance over various durations:

Immediate Impact on the Next Week

- The stock price decreased by 0.84% to $16.55 on the day after the high was reached.

- Over the following week, the stock price fluctuated, ending 1.96% lower than the day after the high was reached, at $16.16.

Performance Over the Next Month

- In the month following the high point, the stock price continued to decline, dropping 8.78% from the high point to $15.94.

- The average stock price during this month was approximately $16.41, which is below the high point, indicating that the stock generally trended downwards in the short term.

Performance Over the Next Three Months

- Over the three months following the high point, the stock price experienced significant volatility. It hit a low of $14.61, which is a 17.6% decrease from the high point, before rebounding to $15.97, a 1.5% increase from the low point.

- The average stock price during this period was approximately $15.77, which is also below the high point.

Conclusion: The backtest reveals that after reaching a new high, the stock price of Velocity Financial Inc. experienced a general decline over the short term. While there were some fluctuations, the stock largely trended downwards in the immediate weeks and months following the high point. This suggests that the high point may have acted as a peak in the subsequent price movements, with the stock struggling to surpass this milestone in the near term. Investors should consider this historical context when assessing the potential future performance of the stock.

Velocity Financial's recent stock performance has been bolstered by several positive developments. On June 10, 2025, JMP Securities analyst Steven DeLaney reiterated his endorsement for the company, maintaining a Market Outperform rating. This endorsement, along with the reaffirmation of a positive stance by Citizens JMP, has contributed to the bullish sentiment surrounding Velocity Financial. The company's shares have also made a bullish cross above their 200-day moving average, trading as high as $19.08, which is an indication of positive momentum.

These factors collectively suggest a favorable outlook for Velocity Financial's stock, as analysts and market indicators align to support the company's upward trajectory. The recent bullish cross above the 200-day moving average further reinforces the positive momentum, indicating that the stock may continue to perform well in the near future. Investors are likely to remain optimistic about Velocity Financial's prospects, given the strong endorsement from analysts and the positive technical indicators.