Velo3D Soars 27% on Aerospace Breakthrough and Strategic Defense Alliances—What’s Fueling This Surge?

Summary
• Velo3D (VELO) surges 27% intraday, trading at $8.37 after opening at $7.98 and hitting a 52-week high of $8.50.
• Mears Machine’s aerospace delivery using Velo3D’s Sapphire XC system sparks post-hours frenzy, with CEO James Lloyd citing 'growth prospects exceeding capacity.'
• CEO Arun Jeldi confirms SpaceX Raptor engine integration and Anduril collaboration, positioning Velo3D as a key player in defense and space manufacturing.

Velo3D’s stock has erupted on a confluence of strategic wins and sector tailwinds. A record-breaking aerospace delivery, SpaceX validation, and a pivot toward high-margin defense contracts have ignited a 27% intraday rally. With the stock trading near its 52-week high and technical indicators flashing bullish signals, the question is no longer if the momentum will continue—but how far it can go.

Aerospace Hardware Delivery and Defense Sector Momentum Ignite Velo3D's Surge
Velo3D’s meteoric rise stems from two pivotal catalysts: Mears Machine’s successful delivery of aerospace gas turbine components using Velo3D’s Sapphire XC system and CEO Arun Jeldi’s confirmation of SpaceX Raptor engine integration. Mears’ production of Haynes 282 and Inconel 718 parts—processed with Velo3D’s additive manufacturing—has validated the company’s role in high-stakes aerospace applications. Simultaneously, Jeldi’s remarks about SpaceX’s potential to expand its fleet of Velo3D machines and Anduril’s collaboration underscore the stock’s defense-sector tailwinds. These developments align with Velo3D’s Q3 revenue beat ($13.6M) and its pivot to recurring revenue via the Rapid Production Services (RPS) model, which now accounts for 48% of bookings from defense and space.

Options and ETFs for Capitalizing on Velo3D’s Bullish Momentum
• RSI: 70.53 (overbought)
• MACD: 0.305 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Price at $8.37 (above upper band of $6.60)
• 200-day average: $4.53 (price is 62.5% above)
• K-line pattern: Short-term bullish trend

Velo3D’s technicals scream continuation. The stock is trading 43% above its 50-day moving average and 62.5% above its 200-day average, with RSI in overbought territory. The MACD histogram (0.152) and positive divergence suggest momentum is intact. Key levels to watch: $8.50 (52-week high) and $6.90 (intraday low). A break above $8.50 could trigger a retest of the $8.29 52-week high, while a pullback to $7.50 (psychological level) may offer a second-chance entry.

Top Options Contracts:
• VELO20260116P7.5 (Put, $7.50 strike, Jan 16, 2026):
- IV: 24.82% (moderate)
- Leverage: 1758% (extreme)
- Delta: -0.0189 (low sensitivity)
- Theta: -0.00024 (minimal time decay)
- Gamma: 0.0657 (moderate sensitivity to price swings)
- Turnover: 0 (illiquid)
- Payoff (5% upside): $0.885 (max(0, 8.371.05 - 7.50))
- Why: High leverage and gamma make this contract ideal for aggressive bulls expecting a sharp move, though low turnover and delta suggest caution.

Action: Aggressive bulls may consider VELO20260116P7.5 into a breakout above $8.50. For a safer play, use the RSP ETF (SPDR S&P 600 Regional Banking) to hedge against broader market volatility.

Backtest Velo3D Stock Performance
The backtest of VELO's performance after a 27% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 52.63%, the 10-Day win rate is 60.53%, and the 30-Day win rate is 84.21%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 42.52% over 30 days, suggesting that VELO can deliver significant gains even after such a substantial intraday surge.

Position for Velo3D’s Next Move: Key Levels and Strategic Options
Velo3D’s 27% surge is a masterclass in sector-specific momentum. With defense and space bookings driving 48% of Q3 revenue and SpaceX validation reinforcing its technological edge, the stock’s trajectory is far from exhausted. Investors should monitor the $8.50 52-week high as a critical breakout level and the $7.50 support zone for potential retracement opportunities. The VELO20260116P7.5 put option offers a high-leverage play for those betting on continued upside, while the RSP ETF provides a defensive hedge. Act now: If $8.50 breaks, this is a high-conviction buy; if $7.50 holds, it’s a second-chance entry. The defense sector’s $1.7T budget and Velo3D’s RPS model suggest this is more than a short-term pop—it’s a strategic inflection point.