VELO Soars 29% on Aerospace Breakthrough: Is This the Catalyst for a New Bull Run?

Summary
• Velo3D (NASDAQ:VELO) surges 29.06% intraday, trading at $8.505 as of 17:08 ET
• Mears Machine’s aerospace delivery using Velo3D’s Sapphire XC system sparks post-hours frenzy
• Q3 revenue beats estimates at $13.6M, but EBITDA remains negative at -$7.3M
• RSI at 70.53 signals overbought territory, while MACD (0.305) and bullish K-line patterns hint at momentum

Velo3D’s stock has erupted on the back of a landmark aerospace delivery by Mears Machine Corporation, which utilized the company’s Sapphire XC additive manufacturing system. The 29% intraday surge—driven by a 16.54% after-hours jump to $7.68—has pushed VELO to its 52-week high of $8.95. With the stock trading 30% above its 50-day moving average and 62% above its 200-day average, the move underscores a critical inflection point for the additive manufacturing pioneer.

Aerospace Hardware Milestone Ignites Velo3D's Surge
Mears Machine Corporation’s delivery of a complete aerospace gas turbine hardware set to a new customer—featuring components printed on Velo3D’s Sapphire XC system—has catalyzed the stock’s explosive move. The delivery included Haynes 282 and Inconel 718 components, which underwent specialized hot isostatic pressing and heat treatment for high-speed rotating applications. CEO James Lloyd emphasized that growth prospects 'significantly exceed existing print capacity,' validating Velo3D’s role in enabling next-generation aerospace manufacturing. This partnership, combined with Velo3D’s recent $6M Navy contract for CuNi alloy qualification, positions the company as a critical node in the defense industrial base.

Defense Sector Gains Momentum as Velo3D Leads Additive Manufacturing Charge
The defense and aerospace sectors are witnessing a paradigm shift toward additive manufacturing (AM) to address supply chain bottlenecks and operational agility. Velo3D’s strategic alignment with the U.S. Navy’s Maritime Industrial Base Program and its $1.7T defense budget tailwinds place it ahead of peers like 3D Systems (DDD), which trades at a 1.27% intraday gain. While DDD’s 44.5 P/E ratio reflects skepticism about margin expansion, Velo3D’s RPS model—certified under AS9100D—offers a recurring revenue stream with 48% of Q3 bookings from defense and space sectors. This differentiation is critical as the AM market in aerospace and defense is projected to reach $5.4B by 2030.

Options Playbook: Leverage Velo3D’s Volatility with Precision
• Technical Indicators: RSI (70.53, overbought), MACD (0.305, bullish), 50D MA ($5.15, below), 200D MA ($4.53, below)
• Key Levels: Support at $6.90 (intraday low), resistance at $8.95 (52W high)
• Short-Term Outlook: Strong bullish momentum with 30%+ upside potential if $8.95 is cleared

Top Options:
• VELO20260116P7.5 (Put, $7.5 strike, Jan 16 2026):
- IV ratio: 20.15% (moderate)
- Delta: -0.0237 (low sensitivity)
- Gamma: 0.1012 (high sensitivity to price swings)
- Theta: -0.00018 (slow time decay)
- LVR: 1695.50% (extreme leverage)
- Turnover: 0 (low liquidity)
- Payoff at 5% upside (8.93): $1.43 per contract
- Why: High leverage ratio and gamma make it ideal for aggressive short-term bets, though low turnover may limit liquidity.

Hook: Aggressive bulls should target $8.95 breakout with VELO20260116P7.5 as a volatility play, while hedgers may use the put for downside protection.

Backtest Velo3D Stock Performance
The backtest of VELO's performance after a 29% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows favorable results. The 30-day win rate is 86.49%, with a maximum return of 46.02% on day 56, indicating that VELO has a strong track record following the intraday surge.

Position for the Next Wave: Velo3D's Additive Manufacturing Momentum Unstoppable
Velo3D’s 29% intraday surge is not a flash in the pan but a strategic inflection point driven by aerospace and defense sector tailwinds. With the stock trading near its 52-week high and RSI signaling overbought conditions, the key will be whether the $8.95 level holds as a new support. Investors should monitor the U.S. Navy’s CuNi alloy qualification progress and SpaceX’s potential expansion of Sapphire XC adoption. For now, the 1695.50% leverage ratio on the VELO20260116P7.5 put offers a high-risk, high-reward play. Watch for a $8.95 breakout or a pullback to $6.90 support—either scenario could trigger a 20%+ move in the near term.