VELO's 49% Surge: A Volatile Rally Amid Industrial Innovation and AI Breakthroughs

Summary
• Velo3D (VELO) surges 49.1% intraday to $13.52, hitting 52-week high
• Turnover spikes to 4.24M shares, 50.45% of float traded
• CEO highlights SpaceX Raptor 4 engine integration and Anduril collaboration

Velo3D’s explosive 49.1% intraday rally has thrust the additive manufacturing specialist into the spotlight, driven by strategic partnerships with aerospace giants and AI-driven industrial automation trends. The stock’s meteoric rise to $13.52—a 52-week peak—reflects growing confidence in its role in next-gen propulsion systems and defense contracts. With turnover exceeding 50% of its float, the move underscores speculative fervor around industrial AI adoption and sector-wide momentum.

Defense and Aerospace Integration Ignites Velo3D's Explosive Rally
Velo3D’s surge stems from CEO Arun Jeldi’s recent disclosures about the company’s deepening ties to SpaceX and Anduril. Jeldi confirmed that five major components in current Raptor engines are qualified for Velo3D’s additive manufacturing platform, with production already underway for the next-generation Raptor 4. Additionally, the collaboration with Anduril on multiple defense programs signals a strategic pivot toward high-margin, recurring revenue streams. These developments, coupled with Q3 revenue of $13.6M and guidance for positive EBITDA by mid-2026, have galvanized investor sentiment. The stock’s technical setup—trading 122% above its 20-day SMA and 126% above its 50-day SMA—further amplifies bullish momentum.

Industrial Machinery Sector Rally: DDD Gains as VELO Surges
The industrial machinery sector is experiencing a synchronized rally, with Doosan (DDD) rising 12.4% on AI-driven equipment announcements. While DDD’s gains are more moderate, Velo3D’s 49.1% intraday jump reflects speculative fervor around niche applications in additive manufacturing. The sector’s focus on automation and AI integration creates a tailwind for both leaders and innovators, with VELO’s precision engineering capabilities aligning with the broader theme of next-gen industrial solutions.

Bullish Technical Setup and ETF Alignment for Aggressive Positioning
• RSI: 81.52 (overbought), MACD: 0.519 (bullish), 30D MA: $5.25 (far below price)
• Bollinger Bands: $3.35–$7.39 (price at 52W high)

Velo3D’s technicals present a high-conviction bullish case. The RSI’s overbought reading and MACD’s positive divergence suggest sustained momentum, while the stock’s 126% premium to its 50-day SMA indicates a strong upward trend. Key levels to monitor include the $13.52 52-week high as resistance and the $8.48 intraday low as support. Investors should consider holding long positions into the $13.52 breakout, with a stop-loss below $12.00 to protect gains. The sector’s AI-driven automation narrative, reinforced by Doosan’s 12.4% rally, provides additional tailwinds. With no options data available, focus remains on technicals and sector alignment.

Backtest Velo3D Stock Performance
The backtest of VELO's performance after a 49% intraday surge from 2022 to the present reveals favorable results. The 3-Day win rate is 62.16%, the 10-Day win rate is 67.57%, and the 30-Day win rate is 89.19%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest was 72.63% over 30 days, suggesting that VELO can deliver significant gains following the intraday surge.

Breakout Confirmation Needed: Hold for Earnings and Sector Momentum
Velo3D’s 49.1% surge demands confirmation above $13.52 to validate its breakout potential. The stock’s alignment with AI-driven industrial automation and defense contracts positions it to capitalize on sector-wide tailwinds. Investors should monitor the $12.00 support level and watch for follow-through volume. With Doosan (DDD) surging 12.4%, the industrial machinery sector’s momentum remains intact. Aggressive bulls may consider extending long positions into the $13.52 threshold, while cautious traders should await a pullback to $12.00 for a more defined entry.