Is VeChain (VET) Poised for a Near-Term Rebound Amid Stagnant Momentum and Historical Seasonality?

VeChain (VET) has long been a subject of debate among investors, oscillating between periods of optimism and underperformance. As of late November 2025, the token sits at $0.01358664, having fallen from a 90-day high of $0.025537 in October 2025 but showing tentative signs of stabilization. For contrarian value investors, the question is whether VET's current price reflects a mispricing opportunity, particularly in light of recent protocol upgrades, historical seasonality patterns, and technical indicators suggesting a potential breakout. This analysis explores the interplay of these factors to assess VET's near-term trajectory.

1. Recent Price Trends and Technical Analysis: A Mixed Picture

VET's 90-day performance has been characterized by volatility, with a sharp decline to $0.012727 in mid-October followed by a modest recovery to $0.0135 by late November according to market data. Technically, the price has formed a descending wedge pattern, with a key resistance level at $0.0173 and support near $0.0157 according to technical analysis. A breakout above $0.0173 could signal bullish momentum, while a breakdown below $0.0157 might reinforce bearish sentiment. However, trading volume and open interest remain subdued, with 24-hour volume at $32.46 million and open interest stagnant at $28 million as of November 25 according to coingape data. This lack of liquidity suggests limited institutional or retail participation, which could delay a meaningful price rebound.

2. Catalysts for Breakout: Hayabusa and StarGate Staking

VeChain's Hayabusa Mainnet upgrade, activated on December 2, 2025, marks a pivotal shift in its consensus model. Transitioning from Proof-of-Authority (PoA) to Delegated Proof-of-Stake (DPoS), the upgrade aims to democratize governance and enhance scalability for enterprise use cases according to cryptotalk analysis. Concurrently, the StarGate staking program introduced NFT-based staking, allowing users to lock VET and earn VTHO rewards. These changes align with MiCA-compliant tokenomics and deflationary mechanisms, potentially reducing VET's circulating supply over time according to the same analysis.

The market response to these upgrades has been positive. Following the Hayabusa activation, VET surged 8% to $0.045, driven by renewed interest in staking incentives and reduced inflationary pressures according to market reports. Analysts argue that StarGate's deflationary design-locking VTHO and rewarding long-term holders-could act as a fundamental catalyst for price appreciation according to coinmarketcap analysis. For contrarian investors, the post-upgrade rally suggests that VET's intrinsic value may be undervalued relative to its technical and on-chain activity.

3. Historical Seasonality and Contrarian Opportunities

Historically, November has been a strong month for VET, with an average return of 20.9% over the past seven years according to investx data. However, November 2025 deviated from this pattern, with the price fluctuating between $0.0124 and $0.0179 without significant momentum according to Yahoo Finance. This divergence, coupled with stagnant open interest, highlights a potential mispricing. For value investors, low-volume periods often represent opportunities to capitalize on undervaluation cycles.

For example, in October 2025, VET plummeted from $0.0220 to $0.0150 amid broader market volatility according to Yahoo Finance data. While the price has since recovered modestly, it remains below pre-crash levels. Technical patterns, such as the descending wedge, suggest that a breakout above $0.0173 could trigger a 20% rebound, aligning with historical November trends according to historical data. The key for contrarians is to monitor whether the Hayabusa upgrade and StarGate staking can generate sufficient on-chain activity to validate this technical thesis.

4. Risk Factors and Market Sentiment

Despite these catalysts, risks persist. Broader market volatility and stagnant open interest indicate weak investor confidence according to historical analysis. Additionally, VET's 30-day price decline of -23.72% according to coingape data underscores the challenges of sustaining a bullish breakout. Analysts remain divided: some predict a recovery to $0.0200 if resistance is breached, while others caution that historical volatility patterns could prolong the downtrend according to beincrypto analysis.

Conclusion: A Tactical Case for Contrarian Value Investing

VeChain (VET) presents a compelling case for contrarian value investors seeking tactical breakout opportunities. The Hayabusa upgrade and StarGate staking have introduced structural improvements to tokenomics, while historical seasonality and technical patterns suggest a potential rebound. However, success hinges on the ability of these catalysts to overcome stagnant momentum and broader market skepticism. For investors willing to navigate short-term volatility, VET's current price may represent an undervaluation opportunity, particularly if the $0.0173 resistance level is tested and held.