VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) Market Overview

• VETUSDT declined 4.9% over the last 24 hours, closing at 0.02216 after hitting a high of 0.02314.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near the high, followed by a breakdown below key support at 0.0228.
• Volatility expanded during the early hours, with volume surging above 7.3 million VET at 17:30 ET.
• RSI reached overbought levels (70) before reversing lower, signaling weakening momentum.
• Price tested the 0.0224–0.0226 range twice, indicating a potential near-term support cluster.

VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) opened at 0.02261 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.02216 on 2025-10-09 at 12:00 ET. The pair hit a high of 0.02314 and a low of 0.02187, registering a total trading volume of approximately 157 million VET and a turnover of roughly $35.5 million. Price action showed a clear bearish bias following a key 15-minute bearish engulfing pattern at 17:30 ET and a breakdown below 0.0228.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained below the price for most of the session, confirming the downward drift. A 200-period daily moving average is currently at 0.0225, which may offer short-term resistance should there be a rally. Bollinger Bands expanded during the overnight hours, indicating a rise in volatility, with price settling closer to the lower band on multiple occasions, suggesting bearish exhaustion has not yet occurred.

Relative Strength Index (RSI) peaked at 70 during the early hours, indicating overbought conditions, but quickly reversed to below 50 by 0.0221, signaling weakening momentum. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) showed bearish divergence, with the histogram contracting in tandem with lower prices. Notably, a divergence between price and MACD during the 02:00–04:00 ET window could indicate a potential bounce is in the works. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement from the high at 0.02314 to the low at 0.02187 aligns with the 0.0223 level, which has acted as a retest barrier twice.

Price action near 0.0223 and 0.0228 is critical to monitor in the next 24 hours, as a breakdown below 0.0222 may open the door for a test of 0.0220 or even 0.0218. Conversely, a rejection and a close above 0.0224 could signal a short-covering rally. Investors should remain cautious of potential further volatility due to high volume spikes observed near key support/resistance areas.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves a mean-reversion approach based on Bollinger Bands and RSI divergence. A long entry is triggered when price closes below the lower Bollinger Band and RSI falls below 30, with a stop-loss placed at the recent swing low and a target at the 20-period moving average. A short entry is triggered when price closes above the upper band and RSI exceeds 70, with a stop above the recent high. The technical indicators observed today—such as RSI divergence and Bollinger Band expansion—align with the conditions required for this strategy. Given the current setup, a short-biased entry may be more favorable in the near term, assuming the breakdown below 0.0228 is confirmed and RSI remains bearish.