VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) Market Overview – 2025-09-23

• VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) traded in a tight range but showed bearish momentum in the second half of the 24-hour period.
• A key support level at 0.02273 and resistance at 0.02298 were tested multiple times, with mixed follow-through.
• Volatility expanded after 20:00 ET, coinciding with a drop in price to 0.02256, but failed to break below 0.0225.
• RSI and MACD suggested weakening bullish momentum, with bearish divergence noted late in the period.
• On-chain volume surged in the early morning hours, but price failed to sustain higher levels.

VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) opened at 0.02299 at 12:00 ET-1 and traded between 0.0225 and 0.02308 before closing at 0.02269 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-23. The total traded volume over the 24-hour period was approximately 106,518,600 VET, with a notional turnover of around $2,383,309.

Structure & Formations

Price tested key resistance at 0.02298 multiple times but failed to close above it, forming several bearish hammers and engulfing patterns after 0.02298 was retested from above. A notable bearish engulfing pattern appeared at 06:30–06:45 ET, followed by a sharp pullback. A key support level at 0.02273 held during two attempted breakouts, suggesting strong buying interest in that range. A bearish consolidation triangle formed between 05:00 and 09:00 ET, with price ultimately breaking below it.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs both remained bearish, with the 20SMA crossing below the 50SMA in a death cross formation in the early morning hours. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA (0.02282) and 200-period SMA (0.02295) acted as resistive levels, while the 100-period SMA (0.02279) provided a temporary floor. Price remains below all three, indicating a bearish bias over the medium term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line at 05:30 ET, confirming a bearish shift in momentum, and remained in negative territory for the rest of the period. RSI dropped to a 12-week low near 30 in the early morning, hinting at oversold conditions, but failed to generate a meaningful bullish bounce. A bearish divergence between price and RSI became evident after 07:00 ET, with price making higher lows while RSI made lower ones.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a moderate expansion from 18:00 ET onwards, reflecting increased volatility. Price spent the last 6 hours within the lower third of the bands, indicating a period of consolidation and bearish sentiment. A brief contraction occurred around 02:45 ET, but it did not lead to a breakout or reversal in price.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early morning hours as price broke below the 0.02280 level, but turnover did not increase proportionally, suggesting weak conviction in the move. The largest 15-minute volume spike occurred at 03:30 ET, during a sharp drop from 0.02298 to 0.02272. Divergence between price and volume was observed during the late evening as volume decreased while price continued to fall.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the key swing between 0.02256 and 0.02308, the 38.2% level (0.02288) acted as a temporary ceiling, while the 61.8% level (0.02277) held firm as support. The 50% retracement (0.02282) was repeatedly tested but failed to trigger a sustained bullish reversal. On the daily chart, the 61.8% level (0.02267) was key in the last 24 hours and appears to be a potential pivot point for near-term price action.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could involve a short bias triggered when the 20SMA crosses below the 50SMA on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed above the nearest resistance (0.02298) and a target at the prior support level of 0.02273. This could be combined with a RSI filter under 50 to confirm bearish momentum. The recent price action aligns with this setup, showing a successful death cross, bearish divergence, and a lack of follow-through on the breakout attempts. A trailing stop could also be introduced once price breaks below 0.02273.