VeChain/Tether Market Overview for October 5, 2025

• VETUSDT traded in a tight range for most of the session, with a bullish breakout forming in the 3-hour window.
• Price pushed above key resistance levels, supported by strong volume in the final hours of the session.
• RSI and MACD showed divergence in early hours but realigned with bullish momentum in the last 4 hours.
• Bollinger Band expansion signaled rising volatility, with price trading near the upper band at close.
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 61.8% and 78.6% aligned with recent highs, suggesting possible consolidation or reversal zones.

VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) opened at $0.02272 at 12:00 ET on October 4, 2025, and closed at $0.02334 at 12:00 ET on October 5. The 24-hour range was $0.02271 to $0.02369. Total volume traded was approximately 113,540,506 VET, with a notional turnover of $2,657,115 USD.

Price action showed a clear bullish bias in the latter part of the session, with a breakout above the 0.02300–0.02320 resistance zone. A large bullish 15-minute candle formed around 03:00 ET, followed by a consolidation phase. A bullish engulfing pattern was observed at 05:45 ET, confirming the upward trend. Price appears to be consolidating near a 50-period moving average, with the 20-period MA slightly above.

MACD showed a bullish crossover during the breakout, and RSI remained in the 55–65 range, indicating positive momentum but not overbought conditions. Bollinger Bands showed a contraction in the early hours before expanding in the morning, with the price closing near the upper band. Volume increased significantly in the 4-hour window from 02:00 to 06:00 ET, aligning with the breakout and confirming institutional participation.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 0.02271 to 0.02369 move showed key levels at 0.02320 (38.2%), 0.02340 (50%), and 0.02355 (61.8%). Price may test the 0.02340–0.02355 zone in the next 24 hours for consolidation or a potential pullback.

Backtest Hypothesis
A potential backtesting strategy for VETUSDT could focus on breakout trades using Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Band expansions as entry signals. For instance, a long trade could be initiated when price closes above a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and the 20-period MA crosses above the 50-period MA on a 15-minute chart. A stop-loss could be placed below the previous swing low or the lower Bollinger Band, with a target at the next Fibonacci level or the upper Bollinger Band. This approach may help identify high-probability setups during periods of rising volatility.