VeChain/Tether Market Overview

Summary
• VETUSDT closed at 0.01686 after opening at 0.01653, with a 24-hour high of 0.01721 and low of 0.01632.
• Momentum is mixed with RSI hovering near 50, suggesting consolidation.
• Volume spiked during the overnight rally, but turnover failed to confirm strong conviction.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility, with price currently near the upper band.
• A key 0.0165 support level appears intact, but buyers have shown strength around 0.0168–0.0170.

VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) opened at 0.01653 on 2025-11-12 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.01686 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-13. The pair reached a 24-hour high of 0.01721 and a low of 0.01632. Total volume was approximately 163,697,566.8 units, with a notional turnover of about $2,767,492. The price action appears to reflect a tug-of-war between short-term buyers and sellers, with consolidation likely ahead unless a clear break of key levels emerges.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour candlestick pattern shows a mixed formation. Early in the session, bearish pressure pulled the price below key support at 0.0165, but buyers retook control in the overnight hours, forming a bullish harami pattern from 0.01638 to 0.01644 and a subsequent bullish engulfing pattern at 0.0168–0.0170. A key horizontal support level appears at 0.0165, which was retested and held during the 22:00–00:00 ET window. A break below 0.01632 could signal deeper correction, while a retest of 0.01721 may indicate renewed risk-on sentiment in the broader market.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period SMA is slightly above the 50-period SMA, suggesting a mild bullish bias. Over the daily timeframe, the 50-period and 200-period SMAs are converging, with the price currently trading near the 50-period SMA, indicating that VETUSDT may be at a turning point. A sustained close above the 200-day SMA could attract longer-term buyers, but this remains speculative in the short term.

MACD & RSI

The RSI has been oscillating around 50 for the last 6 hours, indicating a neutral momentum phase. Earlier in the session, it briefly entered overbought territory (RSI > 70), suggesting a short-term rally. However, the lack of follow-through volume during these spikes implies weak conviction. The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, supporting a short-term bullish bias, but the histogram remains small, hinting at limited momentum behind the rally.

The Bollinger Bands have recently expanded, reflecting rising volatility. Price remains in the upper third of the bands, which could indicate short-term overbought conditions. A retrace to the lower band (around 0.0163–0.0164) may provide an entry opportunity for short-term traders. However, a break above the upper band could confirm a more aggressive bullish move in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the overnight hours, particularly between 04:00–06:00 ET, coinciding with the price breakout to 0.01721. This suggests institutional or algorithmic activity in that window. However, turnover failed to reach new highs during that period, indicating a potential divergence. This could imply a false breakout or consolidation before further directional movement. Caution is warranted around 0.0168–0.0170, where volume has started to dry up.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the daily chart, the price has retested the 61.8% Fibonacci level (0.0165) twice within the last 24 hours, showing its importance. On the 15-minute chart, the 38.2% retracement level (0.0168) appears to be a key short-term resistance, with the price showing some hesitation at this level. A break above 0.01686 could target the 61.8% level at 0.01703, aligning with recent momentum shifts.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest of the RSI-based strategy over the 2022–2025 period shows mixed results, with an overall negative return of -36.2%. While the annualised return is mildly positive at 3.9%, the deep 67.1% draw-down and low Sharpe ratio of 0.08 suggest poor risk-adjusted performance. The strategy’s reliance on RSI thresholds (typically 70/30) may not be sufficient to capture sustained moves on VETUSDT, especially in a low-volatility, sideways environment like the current one. Given the recent price action and RSI behavior, the same strategy may struggle to outperform random entry if applied in isolation.