VeChain/Tether Market Overview

• VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) traded in a 24-hour range of $0.0165–$0.0173 with a closing dip from the high.• Price formed multiple bearish and bullish engulfing patterns, with key support holding at $0.0169 and resistance at $0.0172–$0.0173.• Volatility picked up in the 22–23:00 ET window, with a 3.4% swing in 90 minutes.• RSI showed overbought conditions at $0.0173 and oversold at $0.0166, suggesting potential reversal levels.• High turnover was observed during the 21:15–22:15 ET window, coinciding with a sharp decline in price.

VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) opened at $0.01719 on 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $0.01731 and a low of $0.0165 before closing at $0.01708 on 2025-10-23 at 12:00 ET. Total volume over 24 hours was approximately 78.9 million VET, with notional turnover at $13.7 million. The pair traded in a tight range for much of the session but saw a sharp decline from $0.01724 to $0.01667 in the early evening hours.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart of VETUSDT shows a key support level at $0.0169, which held through multiple bearish candle patterns, including a large bearish engulfing pattern at $0.01704–$0.01693 and another at $0.01707–$0.01693. Resistance levels at $0.0172–$0.0173 were tested multiple times, with the price breaking above $0.01724 briefly before retreating. A potential bullish reversal was signaled at $0.0169 with a bullish engulfing pattern forming after a sharp decline, suggesting possible short-term support. A long lower shadow at $0.01688–$0.01693 also hinted at buying interest resuming.

Key Observations

Price action suggests a tug-of-war between buyers and sellers in the $0.0169–$0.0172 corridor. The bearish bias became more pronounced after 21:15 ET, with a sharp 3.4% drop to $0.01667 within 90 minutes. However, the support at $0.0169 appears to be holding, suggesting a possible consolidation phase before the next directional move.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were in convergence at around $0.0170–$0.01705, indicating a potential equilibrium point. The 20-period line crossed slightly above the 50-period line at $0.01715, signaling a short-term bullish momentum. However, the 50-period line remained above $0.01707, suggesting a longer-term bearish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period and 100-period moving averages were in bearish crossover at $0.01714–$0.0172, reinforcing the downward trend. The 200-period line remained below these, adding to the bearish signal.

Interpretation

While the 15-minute chart shows a potential near-term bullish bias due to the 20/50 crossover, the longer-term trend remains bearish. Traders should watch the 50-period MA for possible support or resistance as the price approaches it.

MACD & RSI

The MACD for VETUSDT turned negative in the late evening hours, confirming the bearish move. The MACD histogram showed a sharp divergence from the price action as the decline began, with negative divergence suggesting a continuation of the downward trend. On the RSI, the pair reached oversold territory at 24–28 during the decline to $0.01667, indicating potential for a short-term rebound. However, the RSI quickly retreated from oversold levels, showing limited follow-through buying. The RSI crossed back into overbought territory at $0.01731, but the move lacked conviction and closed near the middle of the range.

Momentum Signals

The overbought condition at $0.01731 and the subsequent pullback suggest a lack of momentum to sustain a bullish move. The oversold bounce also lacked strength, suggesting the market may remain range-bound or continue to trend lower.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly during the 21:15–22:15 ET window, with the Bollinger Bands widening from a $0.0001 range to $0.0005 as the price dropped to $0.01667. This indicates a potential short-term exhaustion of bearish momentum. The price closed near the middle band at $0.01708, suggesting a possible consolidation phase. The upper band was briefly touched at $0.01731, but the move failed to close above it, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Volatility Insights

The sharp expansion in volatility during the 21:15–22:15 ET window indicates a potential turning point. While the move to $0.01667 was significant, the failure to close below $0.0169 suggests a possible short-term reversal. Traders should watch for a retest of $0.0169 as a potential support level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the 21:15–22:15 ET window, coinciding with the sharp decline from $0.01724 to $0.01667. Total volume for the 90-minute period was over 25 million VET, accounting for 32% of the day’s total volume. Notional turnover reached $4.3 million during this period, the highest of the day. After this sharp move, volume normalized, with no significant spikes observed in the final hours of the session.

Volume Interpretation

The high volume during the sharp decline suggests a genuine bearish move, but the lack of follow-through volume in the final hours suggests a possible pause in selling pressure. This divergence may indicate a potential bounce or consolidation ahead.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the key swing from $0.0165 to $0.01731, the 38.2% level sits at $0.01696, while the 61.8% level is at $0.01708. The 50% retracement level is at $0.01692. These levels align closely with key support and resistance areas identified from candlestick patterns and moving averages. Notably, the 61.8% retracement level coincides with the close price of $0.01708, suggesting potential consolidation at this key level.

Key Levels

The 61.8% retracement at $0.01708 appears to be a critical level for near-term direction. A break above this level may signal a short-term bullish rebound, while a failure to hold above it could reinforce the bearish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

The technical indicators suggest potential for a strategy based on support and resistance levels. A backtest using the 20-day low as the entry trigger and the 20-day high as the exit trigger could provide insight into the viability of a simple mean-reversion strategy. Given the observed support at $0.0169 and the resistance at $0.0172–$0.0173, this pair may offer favorable risk-reward characteristics during range-bound conditions. The RSI and MACD divergence further supports the potential for a reversal at key levels.