VeChain/Tether Market Overview – 2025-10-08

• VETUSDT opened at $0.02259 and closed at $0.0226, with a 24-hour high of $0.02289 and low of $0.02235.
• Price action suggests consolidation after a morning rally, with a bearish bias developing in the afternoon.
• Momentum remains mixed; RSI shows slight overbought conditions, while MACD indicates a fading bullish trend.
• Volatility increased during the morning UTC push, with volume peaking near $0.0228.
• A potential short-term support appears at $0.0226, with resistance at $0.0228.

VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) traded in a tight range of $0.02235 to $0.02289 on 24-hour volume of ~111.34 million VET, with a notional turnover of ~$2.49 million. The pair opened at $0.02259, touched an intraday high of $0.02289, and closed at $0.0226 at 12:00 ET. The price formed a small-bodied bullish candle in the morning followed by bearish engulfing patterns in the afternoon, suggesting a potential shift in sentiment.

Key support levels appear to be forming at $0.0226 and $0.0225, with prior swing lows reinforcing these areas. Resistance is likely to be found at $0.0228–$0.02285, where the price previously stalled. A bearish engulfing pattern around 15:30 UTC (1930 ET) and a doji at 18:00 UTC (12:00 ET) indicate indecision and potential reversal.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are both above the current price, indicating a mild bearish bias. The daily chart shows the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are converging, with price hovering just above the 50-period, suggesting a neutral to bullish long-term outlook could still be in place.

MACD and RSI Analysis

The MACD line crossed below the signal line around 18:00 UTC, forming a bearish crossover and suggesting weakening bullish momentum. RSI reached an overbought level of ~64 in the morning but has since fallen back to neutral territory (~55), indicating a possible short-term pullback. These indicators suggest that while the morning rally was strong, the afternoon sell-off is gaining momentum.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands expanded during the morning rally, with price reaching near the upper band. This expansion indicates increased volatility. However, as the price retreated during the afternoon, it moved closer to the middle band and now sits slightly below it. The contraction in the bands suggests decreasing volatility and potential consolidation ahead.

Volume and Turnover

Volume was most active during the morning rally and the afternoon sell-off, with the largest volume spikes occurring around $0.02275–$0.0228. Notional turnover also increased during these periods, showing strong participation. Price and volume moved in alignment during the morning push, but diverged in the afternoon as volume surged while price fell, indicating a potential loss of bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the morning rally from $0.0225 to $0.02289, the 38.2% retracement level is at $0.0227 and the 61.8% level is at $0.0226. Price is currently trading near the 61.8% level, suggesting it may find support or retest this area. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the previous bullish leg is near $0.0226, reinforcing its importance.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtest strategy involves using a combination of moving averages and RSI to identify potential reversal points in the price of VETUSDT. On the 15-minute chart, a short-term sell signal may have been triggered when the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA, and RSI indicated overbought conditions. A buy signal may be considered near the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level if RSI enters oversold territory and MACD shows a bullish crossover. This approach could be used to target both short-term pullbacks and potential bullish breaks in consolidation.