VeChain/Tether Market Overview (2025-09-22)

• VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) declined by 4.5% over 24 hours, closing near a key support level.
• Price formed bearish engulfing and inside bars, signaling short-term weakness.
• RSI entered oversold territory, while MACD turned negative with bearish divergence.
• Volatility increased with a 19% expansion in Bollinger Band width overnight.
• Turnover surged after 06:00 ET as price accelerated lower toward 0.02224.

VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) opened at 0.02445 on 2025-09-21 12:00 ET and closed at 0.02298 by 2025-09-22 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.02458 and a low of 0.02224. Total volume reached 99.99 million, and turnover amounted to $2,397.03 million. The price action showed a strong bearish bias as the asset broke through key support levels and extended its downward move.

Structure and formations over the 15-minute chart reveal a series of bearish signals, particularly between 19:00–20:30 ET, where VETUSDT formed inside bars and bearish engulfing patterns. These formations typically precede a continuation of the prevailing trend. On the daily timeframe, the price appears to have broken below the 200-period moving average, suggesting a potential shift to a bearish bias for the near term. A critical support level forms around 0.02224, the low reached at 06:15 ET, and resistance is retesting at 0.02307, the low of the morning session.

The MACD turned negative during the early morning hours, with a bearish crossover and declining histogram, reinforcing the bearish momentum. RSI reached oversold territory below 30, which could indicate a short-term bounce but does not negate the larger downtrend. Volatility spiked as Bollinger Bands expanded from a narrow contraction overnight, with price trading near the lower band for much of the session. This suggests a potential reversal could be in play if price stabilizes above 0.02300, but the risk of further decline remains elevated.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart from the 0.02453 high to 0.02224 low suggest 38.2% at 0.02359 and 61.8% at 0.02285—both of which appear to have been used as resistance and support, respectively. On the daily chart, the 50-day and 100-day moving averages now form a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward trajectory.

Backtest Hypothesis:
The described backtesting strategy focuses on detecting bearish engulfing and inside bar patterns on the 15-minute chart during high-volume periods, particularly when RSI enters oversold territory. A short entry is triggered when the close of the pattern candle is below its open, and a stop-loss is placed above the high of the pattern. A take-profit is set at the nearest Fibonacci retracement level (61.8%) and the 50-period moving average. Given the current conditions—bearish engulfing, RSI in oversold, and volume confirmation—this strategy would have triggered a short signal after 19:00 ET, with an initial target at 0.02285 and a stop at 0.02453. This aligns well with the observed move to 0.02224, supporting the strategy’s validity in this context.