VeChain/Tether Market Overview: 2025-09-19 (VETUSDT)

• VETUSDT traded in a tight range initially, but broke higher after 17:00 ET, forming a bullish breakout pattern.
• A temporary pullback in the overnight hours saw price testing support near 0.0253–0.0255, which held.
• Momentum diverged in early ET hours, with RSI peaking around 61.8% Fibonacci levels before reversing.
• Volatility expanded during the late ET/early local Asian session, with Bollinger Band width increasing.
• Volume surged on the breakout move and declined during consolidation, indicating order flow confirmation.

VeChain/Tether (VETUSDT) opened at 0.0256 on 2025-09-18 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.02543 on 2025-09-19 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was between a high of 0.02637 and a low of 0.02495. Total volume traded was 211,931,463.09 units, and notional turnover amounted to $5,422,540.32, assuming an average price of ~$0.0256.

The 24-hour chart reveals a consolidative start, followed by a sharp rally in late ET hours, with a bullish breakout forming above a key 15-minute resistance level of 0.02606. This breakout was confirmed by strong volume and a sustained close above that level. A subsequent pullback in the overnight session found support at 0.0253–0.0255, which may serve as a near-term floor. The price formed a bullish engulfing pattern and a bullish harami during the initial breakout, indicating potential reversal strength from prior bearish levels.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLC data shows a strong consolidation phase early on, followed by a breakout from a tight channel between 0.0256 and 0.0259. A key breakout above 0.02606 was followed by a retest of the level, which held, forming a potential bullish flag pattern. A strong engulfing candle formed at 0.02606, signaling a possible shift in sentiment. Additionally, a bearish harami emerged at 0.02596, though it was quickly reversed, indicating strong buying pressure.

Moving Averages & Indicators

At the 15-minute level, the 20-period SMA crossed above the 50-period SMA at 0.0259, confirming a short-term bullish trend. The 50-period SMA is currently sitting at 0.02593, while the 100-period SMA is at 0.02586, suggesting the longer-term trend is neutral. On the daily chart, the 50-period SMA is at 0.02589, and the 200-period SMA at 0.02575, indicating a slightly bullish bias over the longer term.

MACD showed a bullish crossover in the late ET hours, confirming the breakout move. RSI peaked at 64.8 before retracing, indicating overbought conditions were met with profit-taking. Bollinger Bands expanded in the overnight hours, reflecting increased volatility, and the price closed near the upper band during the breakout.

Fibonacci & Support/Resistance

The recent high at 0.02637 and low at 0.02593 form a key swing range. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at 0.02606 coincided with a strong resistance level, which was broken and retested. The 50% and 38.2% levels at 0.02615 and 0.02626, respectively, appear as immediate resistance for the next 24 hours. On the downside, the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 0.02566 and 61.8% at 0.02556 are key support levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked on the breakout, with over 8 million units traded on the bullish engulfing candle. Subsequent volume has decreased, suggesting the initial momentum has waned. The notional turnover rose sharply during the breakout and dipped during consolidation, confirming the strength of the move. A divergence between price and volume is evident in the early morning hours, suggesting a potential reversal or continued consolidation.

Forward Outlook & Risk

Looking ahead, VETUSDT appears to be in a consolidation phase following the breakout, with key resistance at 0.02626 and support at 0.02556. A break above 0.02637 could extend the rally, but a close below 0.02556 may trigger further bearish action. Investors should watch for divergence in RSI and volume during the next 24 hours, as well as for a potential retest of the 0.02606 level, which may serve as a critical inflection point.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy leverages a breakout-based framework centered on the 15-minute 20/50 SMA crossover, paired with volume confirmation and a retest of the breakout level as a secondary filter. The key entry trigger is a bullish engulfing pattern forming on strong volume, followed by a retest of the breakout resistance level (0.02606 in this case). A stop-loss is placed below the 38.2% Fibonacci level (0.02566), while the take-profit target aligns with the 61.8% retracement (0.02626).

Given the 24-hour data, the breakout at 0.02606 was followed by a retest and a bullish engulfing pattern, fulfilling both the entry and confirmation criteria. If this pattern were to repeat, a similar strategy could generate a high-probability long setup. A potential retest of 0.02606 may offer an opportunity for a follow-through move higher, assuming volume and momentum remain aligned.