VeChain's Strategic Price Setup and Liquidity Recovery Potential: A Deep Dive into On-Chain Smart Money Activity and Order Block Analysis

VeChain (VET) has emerged as a compelling case study in strategic price accumulation and institutional-driven liquidity recovery in 2025. With the token trading at $0.02439 as of October 13, 2025, the market is witnessing a confluence of technical and fundamental catalysts that suggest a potential breakout scenario. This analysis delves into the on-chain smart money activity, key order block levels, and institutional developments shaping VET's trajectory.

Accumulation Below the 20-Week Moving Average: A Smart Money Signal

VeChain's price action has formed a classic accumulation pattern below the 20-week moving average, a setup often flagged by analysts like Michaël van de Poppe as a precursor to long-term rallies, according to a Coin Edition analysis. The double-bottom formation-first near $0.015 and later consolidating above $0.035-indicates patient capital entering the market. Fibonacci projections from this structure suggest potential price targets of $0.068 and $0.12 if momentum strengthens, the Coin Edition analysis notes.

However, historical backtesting of the double-bottom pattern on VET reveals a cautionary note. A backtest of the double-bottom strategy on VET (2022–2025) produced a cumulative return of –50.6%, with a maximum drawdown of –70% and a negative Sharpe ratio of –0.48; these figures come from the published backtest results. While a few individual trades generated attractive returns, the backtest found the pattern underperformed a simple buy-and-hold approach and carried significant downside risk.

Open interest for VET has surged by 3.6% in the last 24 hours, signaling growing conviction among traders and new capital inflows, the Coin Edition analysis also observes. This aligns with broader institutional developments, such as Franklin Templeton's inclusion of VET in its tokenized treasury fund and BitGo's custody solutions, which underscore the token's growing institutional credibility, according to a Coin Edition outlook.

Key Order Blocks and Technical Catalysts

From a technical perspective, VET is currently consolidating in a descending wedge pattern, with immediate support at $0.025–$0.027 and resistance at $0.035. A clean breakout above $0.030 could trigger a 200% price surge based on historical patterns, the Coin Edition analysis suggests. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 47.98 and a neutral MACD suggest weakening bearish momentum, hinting at a potential trend reversal.

Critical order blocks include a double-bottom support near $0.015 and a consolidation zone above $0.035. Fibonacci retracement levels from these structures project targets toward $0.068 and $0.12, assuming sustained buying pressure, per the Coin Edition analysis. Additionally, the 20-week moving average at $0.025 acts as a pivotal threshold for trend continuation, the Coin Edition outlook adds.

Smart Money Wallet Activity and Institutional Adoption

While specific smart money wallet movements remain opaque, the broader ecosystem shows signs of capital inflows. The Stargate Program, launched in July 2025, has attracted over $125 million in staked VET and 4 million users via the VeBetter app, the Coin Edition outlook reports. This initiative, coupled with a 100% burn rate for VTHO in 2025, is creating deflationary pressure that could enhance VET's long-term value, the same outlook notes.

Institutional adoption is further bolstered by VeChain's MiCA license acquisition and partnerships with global entities like Walmart China, BMW, and LVMH, as documented in the Coin Edition analysis. These collaborations leverage blockchain for supply chain transparency and anti-counterfeiting measures, reinforcing VET's real-world utility. The integration of VET and VTHO into Ledger Live and the launch of a self-custody wallet also highlight growing user confidence, according to a Chain Affairs report.

Fundamental Catalysts: Hayabusa Upgrade and Tokenomics

VeChain's Hayabusa Mainnet upgrade in 2025 is expected to enhance scalability and cross-chain compatibility, potentially expanding VET's utility in enterprise applications, the Coin Edition analysis suggests. The dual-token model (VET and VTHO) ensures cost efficiency, while the 100% VTHO burn rate creates a deflationary tailwind, as outlined in the Coin Edition outlook. These structural improvements position VET to benefit from the growing demand for blockchain solutions in supply chain management and sustainability.

Liquidity Recovery and Market Sentiment

Derivatives data reveals a 3.6% rise in open interest over 24 hours, indicating increased short-to-medium-term confidence, the Coin Edition analysis notes. The Fear and Greed Index for VET stands at a neutral 49, suggesting balanced investor sentiment, the Chain Affairs report shows. Analysts predict a conservative price range of $0.02132–$0.02423 for 2025, with potential upward movement if enterprise adoption accelerates, the Chain Affairs report adds.

Risks and Challenges

Despite the bullish setup, risks persist. A breakdown below $0.0160 could reignite bearish momentum, the Coin Edition analysis warns. Additionally, macroeconomic headwinds and regulatory uncertainties in the crypto space may delay the projected price targets. However, VeChain's focus on real-world applications and institutional-grade infrastructure provides a buffer against broader market volatility.

Conclusion: A Strategic Buy for Long-Term Growth

VeChain's accumulation pattern, institutional adoption, and deflationary tokenomics create a compelling case for long-term investors. With key resistance levels at $0.028–$0.035 and Fibonacci targets up to $0.12, the token is positioned to capitalize on a potential 2025–2030 bull cycle. For traders, a breakout above $0.030 could signal the start of a multi-month rally, while investors should monitor the Hayabusa upgrade and Stargate Program for sustained momentum.