VeChain’s Bubble Risk and Price Outlook: Can VET Break Its Historical Correction Cycle?

VeChain (VET) has long been a case study in the tension between speculative cycles and fundamental innovation. Since its 2021 all-time high of $0.2782, the token has endured a 90% correction, consolidating in a narrow range between $0.02 and $0.03 as of September 2025 [1]. This pattern mirrors broader crypto market dynamics, where bullish phases are often followed by sharp retracements. However, recent upgrades and strategic shifts—particularly the Hayabusa tokenomics overhaul and the Renaissance roadmap—raise a critical question: Can VET break free from its historical correction cycle, or is it merely deferring the inevitable?

Historical Correction Patterns: A Tale of Two Cycles

VET’s price history reveals a recurring narrative of optimism and disillusionment. The 2021 surge to $0.25 was driven by speculative fervor, but the subsequent collapse to below $0.015 by late 2022 exposed the token’s lack of structural demand [2]. From 2023 to 2024, VET stabilized in a $0.015–$0.03 range, buoyed by minor utility-driven adoption in supply chain solutions. Yet, a late-2024 correction to $0.02–$0.03 suggests that market sentiment remains fragile, with technical indicators like RSI (45.82) and bearish MACD momentum signaling caution [3].

The key to breaking this cycle lies in whether VET’s recent upgrades can catalyze a shift from speculative trading to sustained utility. Analysts like Michaël van de Poppe argue that favorable accumulation zones and a double-bottom pattern suggest a potential breakout above $0.03, which could trigger a 400% rally to $0.12 [4]. However, such projections hinge on the assumption that structural changes—rather than short-term volatility—will drive demand.

Tokenomics Upgrades: A Structural Reset?

The Hayabusa upgrade, which transitioned VeChain from Proof of Authority (PoA) to Delegated Proof of Stake (DPoS), represents a pivotal shift in tokenomics. By linking VTHO generation to staking and reducing inflation, the upgrade aims to align incentives for long-term holders while improving decentralization [5]. This change, coupled with the introduction of a dynamic fee market in the Galactica phase, has created deflationary pressures through 100% base-fee burns [6].

Yet, the jury is out on whether these upgrades have fundamentally altered VET’s price dynamics. While on-chain data shows a rise in active addresses since mid-2023, indicating growing adoption, the token’s market capitalization of $1.4 billion (as of early 2023) remains a fraction of its peak [7]. The absence of concrete smart contract updates or codebase improvements further complicates the narrative, suggesting that much of the price action is still influenced by broader market sentiment rather than protocol-level innovation [8].

Real-World Adoption: A Double-Edged Sword

VeChain’s pivot to sustainability and consumer-facing applications—via platforms like VeBetter and VORJ—has expanded its utility beyond enterprise supply chains. Partnerships with global brands like Walmart and BMW underscore its potential in tracking carbon metrics and promoting eco-friendly practices [9]. However, these initiatives face a critical challenge: translating real-world adoption into token demand.

For example, the VeBetter platform’s gamification of sustainable behavior rewards users with VET, but the token’s low price ($0.02–$0.03) raises questions about its perceived value. If users treat VET as a utility token rather than an investment asset, it could reduce speculative selling pressure. Conversely, if adoption remains limited to niche use cases, the token may struggle to attract broader market attention.

Bubble Risk: Mispricing or Misjudgment?

The current price of VET—over 90% below its all-time high—has been labeled a “mispricing” by some analysts, who argue that the project’s fundamentals justify a higher valuation [10]. However, this perspective assumes that the market will eventually recognize VeChain’s utility, a bet that carries inherent risks. Historical data shows that even projects with strong fundamentals can remain undervalued for extended periods if adoption fails to scale.

Moreover, the projected price range for 2025 ($0.0204–$0.0499) reflects a cautious outlook, with an average of $0.0475 expected by year-end [11]. While a breakout above $0.03 could trigger a rally, sustaining upward momentum will require more than technical upgrades—it will demand a shift in investor psychology.

Conclusion: A Tenuous Path Forward

VeChain’s ability to break its historical correction cycle hinges on two factors: the success of its tokenomics upgrades in creating sustainable demand and the scalability of its real-world applications. While the Hayabusa and Renaissance roadmaps provide a solid foundation, the token’s price remains vulnerable to broader market trends. A sustained rally to $0.12 would require not only a breakout above $0.03 but also a broader narrative shift that positions VET as a cornerstone of Web3 sustainability. Until then, investors should treat VET as a high-risk, high-reward proposition with a long-term horizon.

Source:
[1] VeChain Price Prediction 2025, 2026, 2027-2031 [https://www.cryptopolitan.com/vechain-price-prediction/]
[2] VeChain (VET) forecast 2025: Is the crypto coin ... [https://www.bitpanda.com/academy/en/lessons/vechain-vet-forecast-2025-is-the-crypto-coin-experiencing-a-rise]
[3] VeChain (VET) Price Consolidates at $0.02 as Technical Indicators Show [https://blockchain.news/news/20250902-vechain-vet-price-consolidates-at-002-as-technical-indicators-show]
[4] Van de Poppe on VeChain: 'A Big Breakout Is Looming ... [https://thecryptobasic.com/2025/08/29/van-de-poppe-on-vechain-a-big-breakout-is-looming-accumulating-here-is-definitely-on-my-radar/]
[5] VeChain Hayabusa Upgrade Reshapes VET and VTHO ... [https://coinedition.com/vechain-hayabusa-upgrade-could-fuel-400-percent-vet-rally/]
[6] VeChain's Renaissance Upgrades and Growth [https://beincrypto.com/learn/vechain-renaissance-upgrade/]
[7] What is VeChain (VET): A Beginner's Guide [https://99bitcoins.com/cryptocurrency/vechain-review/]
[8] What is a price forecast for VeChain over the next 5 years [https://www.quora.com/What-is-a-price-forecast-for-VeChain-over-the-next-5-years]
[9] Understanding VeChain: A Comprehensive Overview [https://messari.io/report/understanding-vechain-a-comprehensive-overview]
[10] VeChain October/November Overview [https://www.reflexivityresearch.com/all-reports/vechain-october-november-overview-09d74]
[11] VeChain Price Prediction 2024-2030: VET Forecast [https://switchere.com/cryptocurrency/vechain-price-prediction-2023-2030-vet-forecast/]