Vaulta/Bitcoin (ABTC) Market Overview for October 30, 2025

• ABTC posted a bearish close near 2.52e-06 after testing intraday highs of 2.58e-06 and lows of 2.43e-06.
• Momentum weakened on RSI divergence and shrinking Bollinger Band range.
• Volume dropped sharply in the final hours despite price instability.
• A 61.8% Fib retracement at ~2.51e-06 may offer near-term support.

Vaulta/Bitcoin (ABTC) opened at 2.54e-06 on October 29, 12:00 ET and closed at 2.43e-06 by October 30, 12:00 ET, with a high of 2.58e-06 and a low of 2.43e-06 over the 24-hour window. Total volume amounted to ~168,174.6 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $0.422 (assuming Bitcoin price ~$48,000). Price action exhibited multiple failed bullish attempts and a bearish breakdown below key levels.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period revealed multiple bearish signals, including a hanging man on the 19:45 candle and a confirmed bearish breakout below the 2.54e-06 psychological level. Key support levels include the 2.51e-06 (61.8% Fib retracement from the intraday high), and resistance at 2.54e-06. A doji formed at 2.53e-06 on the 00:45 candle, suggesting indecision, but bears ultimately overpowered bulls.

Moving Averages and Momentum

Short-term moving averages (20/50-period 15-min) indicate a bearish crossover with price below both, suggesting continued pressure. The 50-period line is key to retesting. RSI dropped sharply from ~65 to ~35, indicating waning momentum. MACD lines crossed below the signal line early in the session, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Volatility and Fibonacci Levels

Bollinger Bands narrowed ahead of the 18:00 candle, signaling potential volatility. The 2.43e-06 close marked a new low for the day, placing it at the lower band. Fibonacci levels drawn from the 2.43e-06 low to the 2.58e-06 high show 61.8% retracement at 2.51e-06 as the next immediate support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtest assessed a strategy of buying ABTC on every Bullish Harami pattern and holding for 3 trading days. However, results showed a total return of -60.72% and a negative Sharpe ratio of -0.55 over the 4-year period (1 Jan 2022 to 30 Oct 2025). While the pattern occasionally generated strong gains (best trade +37.98%), losses far outweighed gains in frequency and magnitude, resulting in a poor risk-adjusted return. This suggests the strategy is unlikely to be effective in the current ABTC price environment, especially given the prevailing bearish structure and weak momentum.