VanEck Projects Bitcoin Could Reach $2.9 Million by 2050

VanEck, a $161 billion investment firm, has released a new report projecting that Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million per coin by 2050 under a base-case scenario. The report, authored by Matthew Sigel and Patrick Bush, models a 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from current levels. The firm assumes Bitcoin captures 5–10% of global trade and becomes a reserve asset, making up 2.5% of central bank balance sheets.

VanEck also presents a range of outcomes, including a conservative bear-case scenario of $130,000 per coin by 2050 and a bullish hyper-bitcoinization scenario where Bitcoin could reach $53.4 million per coin. In the bullish case, Bitcoin would capture 20% of global trade and 10% of domestic GDP, with a 29% CAGR. The firm emphasizes Bitcoin's role as a strategic, low-correlation asset for institutional investors.

The report suggests a 1–3% allocation to Bitcoin in most diversified portfolios. For investors with higher risk tolerance, allocations up to 20% could historically optimize returns, according to the analysis. VanEck argues that Bitcoin's volatility—modeled at 40–70%—is comparable to frontier equities or early-stage tech, with realized volatility recently hitting multi-year lows near 27%.

Why Did This Happen?

VanEck's report reflects a broader view that Bitcoin is evolving beyond speculative investment into a reserve asset and hedge against monetary debasement. The firm notes that developed markets face high sovereign debt, making Bitcoin a potential safeguard. "The risk of zero exposure to the most established non-sovereign reserve asset may now exceed the volatility risk of the position itself," the report states.

The firm also highlights Bitcoin's low correlation to traditional assets. It shows a historically negative correlation to the U.S. dollar and a neutral to low correlation to stocks and bonds. This dynamic makes Bitcoin an attractive diversifier in portfolios seeking to reduce downside risk.

How Did Markets React?

Bitcoin's price has recently traded near $91,000 as of January 8, 2026. VanEck's report comes amid broader market optimism for crypto, including renewed institutional interest and the recent approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. Bank of America has also updated its policy to allow advisors to recommend crypto allocations via spot Bitcoin ETFs.

The report also touches on blockchain metrics such as the Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP), which is currently at 0.43—mid-cycle— suggesting room for further gains before a market peak. Futures funding rates remain moderate at 4.9%, below levels that typically signal market tops. VanEck's simulations show that even small Bitcoin allocations can improve portfolio efficiency, particularly in traditional 60/40 equity-bond portfolios.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

VanEck's report does not shy away from Bitcoin's volatility, which remains a key consideration for institutional investors. The firm models annualized volatility at 40–70%, comparable to frontier equities or early-stage tech. However, it notes that realized volatility recently dropped to multi-year lows, suggesting market conditions could stabilize further.

The firm also emphasizes the role of Bitcoin in hedging against monetary debasement and geopolitical uncertainty. As developed economies face high sovereign debt and inflation concerns, Bitcoin's non-sovereign nature makes it an attractive alternative. VanEck's report argues that the risk of ignoring Bitcoin may outweigh the risks of holding it in diversified portfolios.

Bitcoin's development activity also saw a 60% surge in 2025, with 135 developers contributing 285,000 lines of code. This growth marks a reversal from years of declining contributions. Network hashrate increased by 32%, and the reachable node count rose by 18%, according to Bitnodes data. These improvements suggest a maturing network capable of handling increased adoption.

VanEck's report concludes that Bitcoin's long-term potential depends on its adoption as a reserve asset and its role in diversified portfolios. While the firm acknowledges the risks, it sees Bitcoin as a strategic allocation that could enhance returns without adding proportional risk. The firm's analysis provides a framework for investors to assess Bitcoin's place in their portfolios, particularly as regulatory and market conditions continue to evolve.