VanEck Predicts Bitcoin Could Reach $2.9M by 2050 as Global Trade Adoption Grows

VanEck’s latest analysis projects that Bitcoin could reach $2.9 million by 2050. This valuation assumes a 15% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next 25 years, driven by Bitcoin’s increasing adoption as a settlement currency and reserve asset. The firm bases this forecast on structural pivots in Bitcoin’s role in global financial systems.

The projection is based on Bitcoin’s adoption in global trade and central bank reserves. VanEck estimates that Bitcoin could settle 5–10% of international trade and 5% of domestic trade by 2050. Additionally, the firm models central banks allocating 2.5% of their assets to Bitcoin as a hedge against sovereign debt risks.

The firm recommends a 1–3% strategic allocation to Bitcoin in diversified portfolios. VanEck highlights that even small allocations can improve portfolio efficiency due to Bitcoin’s low correlation with traditional assets. For investors with higher risk tolerance, allocations up to 20% have historically optimized Sharpe ratios.

Why Did This Happen?

Bitcoin’s price is influenced by global liquidity and monetary debasement. VanEck notes that changes in global M2 money supply explain over 50% of Bitcoin’s price variance. The firm also observes a historically strong negative correlation between Bitcoin and the U.S. Dollar (DXY), reinforcing Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against monetary debasement.

The analysis highlights Bitcoin’s role as a hedge against adverse monetary regime outcomes. VanEck argues that Bitcoin functions as a long-duration hedge against structural deficiencies in the sovereign debt system. As developed markets face a sovereign debt super-cycle, the risk of zero exposure to Bitcoin may exceed the volatility risk of a modest allocation.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Current trends in onchain metrics and futures funding rates suggest the market is mid-cycle. VanEck monitors the Relative Unrealized Profit (RUP) metric, which currently stands at 0.43, indicating the market is within a historically favorable range for returns. Sustained perpetual futures funding rates above 10% typically signal overly bullish sentiment and may precede cycle tops.

Market maturation is evident in declining realized volatility, which recently hit multi-year lows near 27%. Asian trading hours now lead price discovery, indicating a 24/7 mature market structure. This structural shift reflects broader institutional adoption and regulatory clarity.

Volatility is increasingly driven by derivative leverage rather than spot selling. Bitcoin’s volatility is influenced by changes in futures Open Interest, which currently impacts price with an average beta of 0.68x. During volatile periods, this beta can spike to 2.0x, often resulting in mechanical deleveraging rather than fundamental breaks in the thesis.