VanEck Outlook Highlights Gold AI Gains and Bitcoin Bull Signal

• VanEck's GDX gold miners ETF surged 155% in 2025, gold's strongest annual gain in over four decades.
• The firm's semiconductor ETF SMH climbed 48% last year amid AI-driven chip demand despite valuation concerns.
• VanEck's proprietary crypto breadth model triggered its first Bitcoin bull signal since April 2025.
• Ethereum's Fusaka upgrade boosted scalability ahead of institutional tokenization efforts in 2026.

VanEck's 2025 investment themes delivered standout returns as gold and semiconductor ETFs materially outperformed, while early 2026 signals suggest crypto may be turning a corner. The VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) leveraged safe-haven demand and dollar weakness to more than double investors' money, marking gold's best annual performance since the 1980s. Similarly, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH) rode artificial intelligence momentum with concentrated exposure to industry leaders like Nvidia. Heading into 2026, VanEck's digital assets team sees consolidation rather than dramatic price swings, projecting Bitcoin's historical four-year cycle remains intact despite recent ETF outflows.

How Did VanEck Funds Perform in 2025?

GDX jumped 155% last year as mining equities amplified gold's traditional safe-haven role during trade tensions and dollar weakness. This leveraged exposure to rising metal prices delivered outsized returns during gold's strongest year in four decades. SMH climbed 48% tracking AI-related semiconductor demand, benefiting from its low 0.35% expense ratio and concentrated holdings. The semiconductor ETF faced persistent valuation risks entering 2026. Both funds capitalized on sharply diverging sector trends amid shifting institutional allocations. According to VanEck analysis, these results were driven by sector-specific demand and macroeconomic factors.

These results arrived alongside crypto progress: Ethereum activated its Fusaka upgrade in December, increasing blob capacity by 66% initially with another boost scheduled January 7. This upgrade improved network resilience while reducing fees approximately 25%. Despite price declines, Ethereum maintained strong on-chain activity in stablecoin settlement and Layer-2 scaling. Such technical groundwork supports VanEck's thesis that Ethereum's programmability enables unique institutional adoption pathways. As reported, the upgrade represents a key step in Ethereum's scalability evolution.

What Crypto Signals Emerged for 2026?

VanEck's proprietary crypto breadth model signaled potential Bitcoin strength on January 7, its first bullish reading since April 2025. This model tracks how many crypto assets outperform Bitcoin, indicating broadening market participation often preceding trend reversals. The signal suggests stabilization after recent consolidation, though VanEck cautions it represents early positioning rather than confirmed bull market conditions.

This technical development follows $243 million in outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs as prices pulled back from $94,000 toward $92,000. Analysts characterize the redemptions as tactical repositioning rather than structural long-term skepticism. Matthew Sigel, VanEck's Head of Digital Assets Research, projects 2026 will bring consolidation instead of boom/bust cycles, noting Bitcoin's four-year pattern remains intact. The firm recommends 1-3% crypto allocations in diversified portfolios.

How Are Regulatory Shifts Affecting Institutional Adoption?

Morgan Stanley filed for spot Bitcoin and Solana trusts targeting high-net-worth clients, signaling deepening institutional engagement. The Wall Street giant manages approximately $6.4 trillion in assets, positioning itself alongside BlackRock and Fidelity as U.S. spot crypto ETF volumes surpass $2 trillion. This move follows enhanced SEC listing standards in 2025 and reflects growing wealth platform integration. As reported by Reuters, the filing marks a significant institutional entry point.

Regulatory tailwinds strengthened with anti-crypto SEC Commissioner Caroline Crenshaw's departure after voting against spot Bitcoin ETFs. Her exit potentially signals smoother crypto policy alignment under the Clarity Act. The regulatory shift coincides with Ethereum's technical advances in scaling and enterprise use cases like asset tokenization. Such developments underscore VanEck's view that crypto is becoming structurally embedded in financial systems. According to industry analysis, these regulatory changes are paving the way for broader institutional adoption.