Vaneck: Gold to Reach $184K if Adopted as Broad Money

Gold prices could surge to $184,000 per ounce if it were to replace M2 as a global reserve currency, according to a report by Vaneck. The calculation, based on global M2 liabilities and gold reserves, suggests this outcome if central banks shift their approach to reserves. The analysis weighs the implications of a potential shift in the U.S. dollar's reserve status and how this might reshape global monetary systems.

The report highlights that central banks are increasingly diversifying their reserves, adding gold to mitigate geopolitical risks and economic uncertainties. In 2022, central banks added 1,136 tonnes of gold, the highest amount since records began. Emerging economies like China, India, and Turkey are leading this trend.

Gold and silver prices are influenced by a complex mix of factors. Gold is inversely correlated with the U.S. dollar and risk assets like equities. A weaker dollar and market volatility typically drive gold prices higher. Silver, meanwhile, often outperforms gold during periods of market optimism but remains volatile.

Why Did This Happen?

The analysis from Vaneck hinges on the broader definition of money and its expansion from M0 to M2 and potentially M-infinity. Central banks have historically used gold as a reserve asset, and in the event of a shift away from the U.S. dollar, gold could serve as a replacement for broader monetary liabilities.

The report calculates that if M2 were to be backed entirely by gold, the price of gold would need to rise to $184,211 per ounce. This figure is derived by dividing global M2 liabilities by total gold reserves and weighting the result by daily FX turnover. The calculation underscores the scale of the shift required for gold to take on such a role.

How Did Markets React?

Gold prices hit record highs recently, reaching $3643.60 per ounce as of January 2026. This surge was partly driven by geopolitical concerns and a potential loss of confidence in the U.S. dollar's reserve status. Central bank purchases and ETF inflows have supported the rally.

Investor demand for gold has also risen. Bank of America predicts a 14% increase in investment demand could push gold to $5,000 per ounce in 2026. A more aggressive 55% increase in investment demand could send prices to $8,000 per ounce.

Silver prices have also benefited from increased demand, though analysts caution that its recent outperformance over gold may be excessive. Julius Baer notes that while silver is attractive in a bullish metals environment, its volatility makes it a riskier bet.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Market participants are closely monitoring central bank policy and geopolitical developments. A loss of U.S. dollar reserve status could reshape global capital flows and currency dynamics. Some analysts believe the dollar will gradually share its status with other currencies rather than be replaced outright.

Investors are also watching for signs of economic stability or instability. If gold continues to be viewed as a safe haven, demand could remain strong. However, if markets stabilize and confidence returns, gold prices could face downward pressure.

The future of gold depends on several key factors: central bank actions, macroeconomic conditions, and investor sentiment. Analysts expect ongoing volatility as these variables shift throughout 2026.

The report also highlights the importance of diversification in a volatile market. BlackRock recommends broadening exposure and seeking assets that behave differently from traditional stocks and bonds. Copper and other commodities are seen as potential diversifiers.

As the year progresses, the focus will remain on whether gold can maintain its position as a global reserve asset. The implications for gold prices, central bank behavior, and global financial systems remain significant.