VANAUSDC Market Overview: 24-Hour Candlestick Analysis

• Vana/USDC (VANAUSDC) surged from $2.676 to $3.55, forming a sharp bullish trend before consolidation.
• Momentum spiked early morning, followed by a pullback and consolidation in late afternoon trading.
• High volume and strong intraday swings suggest accumulation and potential breakout attempts.
• Price remains above key support levels, with RSI indicating overbought conditions mid-session.
• Bollinger Bands show expansion in early morning, suggesting increased volatility and trend strength.

Vana/USDC (VANAUSDC) opened at $2.703 on 2025-10-26 12:00 ET and closed at $3.027 on 2025-10-27 12:00 ET. The 24-hour period reached a high of $3.55, a low of $2.676, with total trading volume of 28,241.16 USDC and a notional turnover of $86,386.68. Price action suggests strong bullish momentum early in the session, followed by a consolidation phase in the afternoon.

On the 15-minute chart, VANAUSDC exhibited a classic bullish continuation pattern, with a sharp upward move forming a strong base after a brief pullback. Support appears to be consolidating around $3.02–$3.05, while resistance is forming near $3.12–$3.14, following a failed attempt to break above $3.15. Key candlestick formations include a bullish engulfing pattern around 01:30 ET and a doji at the close of the 24-hour period, indicating indecision.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bullish at $2.92–$3.02, confirming a short-term uptrend. The 50/100/200-period daily moving averages would likely show a similar bullish tilt, though not included in this granular data. MACD turned positive during the early morning hours and remained above the signal line, while RSI crossed into overbought territory in mid-session before a pullback. This suggests the price may consolidate before a potential further breakout.

Bollinger Bands showed a wide expansion in the early morning, followed by a gradual contraction as the asset consolidated. Price remained inside the upper band for much of the morning, signaling strong momentum, but moved closer to the middle band as the day progressed, pointing to a possible trend pause or consolidation. Volume remained elevated during the bullish phase, especially in the 00:30–04:00 ET window, with notional turnover peaking at $14,421.35 during the $3.55 high.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute chart suggest critical areas of interest between $3.02 (38.2%) and $3.05 (61.8%), which could act as both support and potential breakout points. The daily chart would need to be analyzed for full retracement context, but the current short-term swing is showing strong internal structure and momentum.

Backtest Hypothesis

To accurately test the performance of a MACD Top Divergence strategy on VANAUSDC, several practical assumptions must be made. First, entry timing should be based on a buy at the open of the bar immediately following the confirmation of the divergence, to avoid look-ahead bias and reflect real-time trading conditions. This is particularly important for high-frequency signals like MACD divergences, which can be detected with reasonable accuracy after a candle closes.

Exit timing should be set for a sell at the close of the same bar or within the same trading day, as outlined in the strategy description. This ensures the backtest remains short-term and avoids exposure to overnight volatility or liquidity issues common in smaller tokens. Since the data frequency is 15-minute bars, the backtest engine should operate with an intraday resolution to capture the nuances of price swings.

The exact symbol VANAUSDC is assumed to represent the Vanar token quoted in USDC on a major exchange, though it would be ideal to confirm the specific exchange (e.g., Binance, KuCoin) for accurate liquidity and slippage assumptions. For now, the data provided will be used as is, with the assumption that it reflects a liquid pair.

No additional risk controls—such as stop-loss or take-profit levels—have been specified, so the backtest will be run without such constraints unless further instructions are provided. This means the strategy will assume full exposure from entry to exit, with no early exits based on volatility or price deviations.

Once these assumptions are confirmed, the backtest can begin by identifying all instances of MACD Top Divergence in the dataset, calculating the next bar’s open price as the entry, and measuring the return from that point to the close of the same trading day. The results can then be used to assess the strategy’s performance, including win rate, average gain/loss, and risk-adjusted returns.