Vanar Chain/USDC Market Overview (VANRYUSDC) – October 22, 2025

• Price action trended lower on 24-hour 15-minute chart, closing at 0.0163 after a low of 0.016
• Momentum indicators suggest oversold conditions with RSI approaching 30, signaling potential bounce
• Volatility expanded significantly in early hours, followed by consolidation near 0.0164
• Notable volume spike in the 04:15–05:00 ET window drove a sharp rebound
• Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.0164 and 0.0168 may offer near-term resistance and support

Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC) opened at 0.0180 on October 21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0163 the following day at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was 0.0180 (high) to 0.0160 (low), with a total volume of 10,313,837.0 units and notional turnover of approximately $170,323. Price action displayed a bearish trend, with a key breakdown to 0.0171 followed by a retest and eventual consolidation around 0.0164–0.0165.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both sloping downward, confirming the bearish bias. The price closed below the 50-period MA, reinforcing short-term bearish momentum. A potential support level appears at 0.0164, where the price has found multiple bounces in the final hours of the 24-hour period. Resistance is visible at 0.0166 and 0.0168, with the latter marked by a sharp rejection candle.

The MACD is bearish, with the fast line below the signal line and a negative histogram, indicating declining bullish momentum. RSI approached oversold territory in the final hours, suggesting a potential short-term rebound. Volatility spiked in the early morning hours (ET), with Bollinger Bands widening and the price reaching the lower band. The subsequent consolidation around 0.0164 suggests a temporary pause in the downward move.

Fibonacci retracement levels indicate potential psychological support at 0.0164 (38.2%) and 0.0162 (61.8%) based on the 0.0180–0.0160 swing. These levels may serve as short-term targets for buyers. Candlestick patterns such as a bullish engulfing on the 04:15–04:30 ET bar and a hanging man on the 05:30–05:45 ET bar add to the technical mix. A key risk to monitor is a break below 0.0162, which could extend the downward trend into the 0.016 range.

The Backtest Hypothesis aligns well with the current market dynamics. Given the RSI nearing oversold levels and the recent rejection at key support, a short-term reversal strategy could be tested. A potential approach would be to enter long positions when RSI dips below 30 and exits the next day at close. Using close prices for P&L and the 14-day RSI is a logical starting point. If we apply this strategy to VANRYUSDC over the last 3 years and compare it to the 2022–2025 performance, it could offer insights into whether the market structure has evolved to favor mean reversion or momentum strategies.