Vanar Chain/USDC Market Overview (VANRYUSDC)

• Price declined from 0.0298 to 0.0279 amid increased volume and bearish momentum
• MACD and RSI suggest overbought conditions have reversed with bearish divergence
• Bollinger Band contraction followed by expansion indicates heightened volatility
• Volume spiked during key breakdown levels, reinforcing bearish bias
• Fibonacci support at 0.0277 and 0.0273 may be critical for near-term direction

Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC) opened at 0.0296 on 2025-09-18 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.0298 and a low of 0.0276, closing at 0.0276 by 12:00 ET on 2025-09-19. Total 24-hour volume was 7,367,845.0 with a notional turnover of $206,885.33. Price action displayed a strong bearish trend with multiple breakdowns and expanding volatility.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a descending triangle pattern during the 24-hour period, with resistance at 0.0298 and support at 0.0276. A key breakdown occurred at 0.0285, confirming bearish continuation. Doji and bearish engulfing patterns were observed in the final hours, reinforcing downward momentum. A 15-minute pivot at 0.0296 acted as a psychological level but failed to contain the bearish bias.

Moving Averages & Indicators

The 15-minute 20-period and 50-period moving averages confirmed the bearish trend, with price falling below both. On a daily timeframe, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are aligned bearishly, suggesting a longer-term downtrend. RSI dropped into oversold territory near 30 by the end of the 24-hour window, while MACD lines trended downward with bearish crossovers, signaling weak momentum and continuation potential.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Bollinger Bands narrowed between 0.0292 and 0.0294 in the early part of the session before expanding sharply as price broke below key support at 0.0285. The price finished the day near the lower band at 0.0276, indicating a strong bearish bias. Volatility expansion coincided with volume surges, suggesting increased conviction in the downtrend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the breakdown at 0.0285 and again at 0.0276, confirming bearish continuation. Notional turnover spiked to $3,688.11 in the 15:45–16:00 ET 15-minute window as price reached the 24-hour low. Price and volume were in alignment, with no divergence observed. The largest volume spike occurred at 15:45 ET with 528,223.0 traded.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels on the 15-minute chart were at 0.0294 (38.2%), 0.0292 (61.8%), and 0.0290 (78.6%). The daily chart showed a 61.8% retracement level at 0.0277, which price approached but did not hold. If the trend continues, the next critical support lies at 0.0273 (78.6% level). A break below 0.0273 could trigger further downside to 0.0269.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering a short position upon confirmation of a bearish engulfing pattern at key Fibonacci support levels, such as 0.0277, with a stop-loss placed above the 0.0281 resistance. The MACD and RSI could be used as confirmation tools—shorting on bearish crossovers and RSI below 30. A target could be set at the 0.0273 level, with position sizing adjusted based on volume spikes. This approach would align with the observed volatility and momentum shifts seen in the 24-hour data, particularly during the final hours.