Vanar Chain/USDC Market Overview: Strong 24-Hour Rally Amid High Volatility

• Price surged 1.5% over 24 hours, driven by strong buying in the last 6 hours.
• Volume spiked above average, with notional turnover reaching $3.42M.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions near 70, but no immediate reversal signs.
• Bollinger Bands expanded mid-day, suggesting increased volatility.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed at key support, reinforcing potential for a rebound.

Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC) opened at $0.0185 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET and traded as high as $0.0199, falling to a low of $0.0173 before closing at $0.0199 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour notional volume was 15,745,866 units, with total turnover amounting to $3.42M in USDC equivalent.

The 24-hour price action shows a strong rebound from a 15-minute low of $0.0173, with price forming a key bullish engulfing pattern at the 0.0177 level, a previous support-turned-resistance. This pattern suggests short-term buyers stepped in after a sharp selloff. On the 15-minute OHLCV data, the 20SMA and 50SMA crossed in a bullish manner, with the 20SMA now above the 50SMA, reinforcing the upward bias. However, the 50EMA has yet to confirm the 20EMA’s bullish lead, indicating some internal hesitation.

Price appears to be testing the upper Bollinger Band mid-day, with a volatility expansion coinciding with the 0.0196–0.0199 range. This suggests increased market activity and the potential for a breakout. The RSI reached 70 in the morning, signaling overbought conditions but with no immediate reversal signs. The MACD histogram remains positive and expanding, suggesting sustained momentum. A potential pullback to the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $0.0189–0.0190 could trigger further bullish continuation.

The volume profile highlights a significant spike in the 9:00–11:45 ET window, with total notional volume surging to over $1.8M in that period. This was accompanied by a strong price rally from $0.0187 to $0.0199. Volume during this period was above average, with no significant divergence between price and volume. This suggests genuine buying pressure rather than a liquidity trap. The 20SMA and 50SMA crossing to the upside during this time further confirmed the trend.

The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $0.0189–0.0190 and the 50SMA at $0.0192 represent key support levels to watch over the next 24 hours. A retest and hold above $0.0189 could confirm the bullish case, potentially pushing toward $0.0200–0.0205. On the downside, a break below $0.0186 would signal a temporary consolidation phase. Traders should monitor the RSI for overbought divergence and the MACD for any bearish crossover signs, which could precede a reversal.

Backtest Hypothesis
A backtest based on the 20/50SMA crossover and a bullish engulfing pattern at key support levels could yield strong short-term returns. A long entry at $0.0188 with a stop-loss below $0.0185 and a target at $0.0195–0.0200 would align with the recent momentum. This strategy would be most effective during high-volume periods when liquidity is sufficient to execute trades without significant slippage.