Vanar Chain/USDC Market Overview

• Vanar Chain/USDC closed higher after a morning break-and-run rally, closing above 0.0283.
• Volume surged in early afternoon hours with a sharp 15-minute spike exceeding 700k USDC equivalent.
• Momentum accelerated in 15-minute MACD and RSI during the rally, indicating strong short-term buying pressure.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly from 0.0278–0.0282 to 0.028–0.0296, signaling rising volatility.
• Fibonacci retracement levels aligned with key support (0.0276–0.0281) and resistance (0.0284–0.0286) areas on the 15-minute chart.

Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC) opened at 0.0276 on 2025-09-15 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0283 on 2025-09-16 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.0312 and a low of 0.0273. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 14,558,866.0, and notional turnover was 404,216.2 USDC.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart revealed a sharp bullish reversal in the morning session, marked by a bullish engulfing pattern as price moved from 0.0277 to 0.0283 in a single 15-minute interval. This was followed by a consolidation phase between 0.0281 and 0.0286 until late in the session. A key support zone formed around 0.0276–0.0281 after a midday pullback, with price testing this level multiple times without breaking below. Resistance emerged clearly at 0.0284–0.0286, where volume thickened and momentum waned.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum was bullish as the 20-period (15-min) moving average crossed above the 50-period line near 0.0280. The 20-period line itself rose from 0.0278 to 0.0283 over the course of the day, indicating a strong uptrend. On the daily chart, the 50-day SMA remained below the 200-day line, but price action showed a divergence from this bearish structure, suggesting a potential near-term shift.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned bullish late in the morning with a clear crossover above the signal line. Positive momentum continued through the day with a peak RSI of 72 in the mid-afternoon, signaling strong buying pressure. However, RSI remained below overbought levels (75), indicating the rally, while strong, may not yet be unsustainable. Divergence between price and RSI was minimal, suggesting continuation of the current trend is more likely than a reversal for now.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly, with Bollinger Bands widening from a narrow range of 0.0278–0.0282 in the early hours to a broad range of 0.028–0.0296 by the late morning. Price action remained near the upper band for most of the afternoon and into the evening, indicating a strong bull trend with no immediate bearish pressure. The narrowing of the bands early in the morning preceded the breakout, a classic sign of a potential move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume saw a dramatic increase during the early afternoon hours, with a 15-minute interval (9:45–10:00 AM ET) recording over 2.3 million in volume. This coincided with a sharp price increase from 0.0295 to 0.0307, marking the highest point of the 24-hour period. Notional turnover also spiked in this period, reaching over 71,000 USDC, confirming the strength of the move. Volume distribution was skewed toward the bullish side, with no significant bearish spikes to suggest large-scale selling pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the major 15-minute swing from 0.0273 to 0.0312, key levels at 0.0288 (23.6%), 0.0295 (38.2%), and 0.0301 (50%) were clearly identifiable. Price found resistance at the 23.6% and 38.2% levels before retreating. Daily Fibonacci levels from the recent low at 0.0273 and high at 0.0312 showed similar alignment, with the 61.8% level at 0.0292 being a potential target for the next leg up.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy could be designed using the observed 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern and the breakout above the upper Bollinger Band as a buy signal. Entry could be placed at the close of the bullish candle, with a stop-loss set just below the recent support at 0.0281 and a take-profit aligned with the 38.2% Fibonacci level at 0.0295. This setup would aim to capture the continuation of the morning rally, which was confirmed by high volume and momentum. A trailing stop could be added once price passes key resistance levels.