Vanar Chain/USDC Market Overview – 2025-09-18

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• Price surged 4.07% from 0.0278 to 0.0288, driven by volume spikes in late-night and morning trading.
• Key resistance emerged near 0.0295, with pullbacks confirming short-term overbought RSI conditions.
• Volatility expanded during the 15-minute cycle, with Bollinger Band widening observed after 00:00 ET.
• A bullish engulfing pattern formed post 02:30 ET, while doji near 05:00 ET signal indecision.
• Turnover remained elevated in the first half of the cycle, declining after 07:00 ET amid consolidation.

Price Action and Volume Summary

Vanar Chain/USDC (VANRYUSDC) opened at 0.0278 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET, surged to 0.0295, and closed at 0.0288 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-09-18. Total trading volume over the 24-hour period was 3,439,581.0, with a notional turnover of $98,537.00. The price action showed a bullish bias during the overnight and morning sessions, followed by a period of consolidation and slight retracement as intraday momentum waned.

Structure & Key Levels

The 24-hour candlestick chart displayed a clear ascending trend punctuated by strong volume surges after 19:00 ET and again post 00:00 ET. Notable resistance levels emerged around 0.0293 and 0.0295, where price action stalled and corrected in response to overbought RSI readings. Key support levels were observed at 0.0288 and 0.0284, which withstood several downward attempts during the afternoon and early evening. A bullish engulfing pattern at 02:30 ET and a doji at 05:00 ET suggested short-term indecision and potential continuation of the uptrend.

MACD, RSI, and Momentum

The MACD showed a positive crossover and maintained an upward trajectory during the early morning, indicating a continuation of bullish momentum. RSI peaked above 70 during the 02:00–04:00 ET window, signaling overbought conditions, though it softened during the afternoon. This suggests that while buyers were in control, there was a potential for a short-term pullback. The momentum indicator appears to be gaining strength, especially after the 03:00 ET bounce.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands reflected a period of volatility expansion during the 12:00–04:00 ET window, with price frequently touching the upper band before retreating. A notable contraction in band width occurred around 06:00–08:00 ET, signaling potential consolidation. Price remained within the bands during the latter half of the 24-hour window, suggesting reduced uncertainty and a more stable price action.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the 24-hour high of 0.0295 and low of 0.0278, the 38.2% level sits at 0.0285, and the 61.8% level is at 0.0288. The price action confirmed the 61.8% level as a critical support zone during the 20:00–22:00 ET period. The 0.0293 resistance level corresponds to the 23.6% retracement, which acted as a psychological barrier before a breakout in the early morning.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy under consideration involves entering a long position when price breaks above the 20-period moving average and volume exceeds the 50-period average. A stop-loss is placed at the 20-period moving average, and a take-profit is set at the next Fibonacci level (38.2%). Given the current chart behavior, including the breakout at 0.0295 and strong volume on the breakout candle, this strategy could have captured the morning rally. The strategy relies on confirming trend strength via both price and volume cues, making it well-suited for the observed price behavior.