Vanar Chain/USD Coin (VANRYUSDC) Market Overview

• Price opened at $0.0295 and closed at $0.0290, forming a bearish bias over 24 hours.
• A key swing low formed at $0.0287 with a retest and rejection observed near $0.0293.
• Volume spiked to 564,301 at 19:45 ET before consolidating, suggesting possible short-term exhaustion.
• RSI hit a low of ~30, indicating oversold conditions but failed to trigger a sustained rebound.
• Bollinger Bands showed moderate contraction during consolidation and expanded during the 04:00–07:00 ET breakout.

Vanar Chain/USD Coin (VANRYUSDC) opened at $0.0295 on 2025-09-10 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.0290 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-11. The 24-hour range was $0.0285 to $0.0298, with total volume of 5,440,737.0 and turnover of $155,146.02. Price formed bearish bias with key support at $0.0290 and resistance at $0.0293–$0.0295.

Structure & Formations

Price found support at $0.0290 after breaking below the 20-period moving average during consolidation, forming a bearish breakout from a tight range. A key bearish engulfing pattern formed at 19:45 ET, signaling a shift in momentum. A doji appeared at $0.0293 near the close of the breakout phase, hinting at indecision after a sharp move. The 20-period EMA crossed below the 50-period EMA during the downtrend, reinforcing bearish sentiment.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20 EMA moved below the 50 EMA during the decline, forming a death cross. The 50 EMA remained near $0.0293–$0.0294, acting as a dynamic resistance level. On the daily chart, the 50 and 200-day EMA were aligned to the downside, with the price below both. The 100-day EMA at ~$0.0295 could act as near-term resistance if a bounce forms.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative at 19:45 ET, confirming the bearish shift. The histogram diverged from price during the consolidation phase, but the bearish cross confirmed the move lower. RSI dropped to ~30 during the low at 19:45 ET and failed to form a bullish reversal, indicating oversold conditions without follow-through buying. A rebound to 40–45 could indicate short-term exhaustion of the decline.

Bollinger Bands

Bands tightened during the 22:30–04:00 ET consolidation phase, indicating low volatility. A break below the lower band at 04:00 ET triggered a sharp decline to the 19:45 low. The price closed near the mid-band on 2025-09-11, suggesting potential for a bounce in the short term. A retest of the upper band at $0.0293 could be a trigger for a short-term reversal.

Volume & Turnover

The largest volume spike occurred at 19:45 ET (564,301), coinciding with a sharp move to $0.0287. Volume during the 04:00–07:00 ET bounce was moderate, indicating weak conviction. Notional turnover rose during the low but fell afterward, suggesting a potential exhaustion of bearish momentum. A higher-than-expected volume on an upward move could signal a reversal attempt.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key 61.8% retracement level at $0.0293 acted as a pivot point during the consolidation. On the 15-minute chart, price retested the 38.2% level at ~$0.0294 before falling again. The 100% extension of the 04:00–19:45 ET move points to $0.0285 as a potential target for further bearish action, though a break back above $0.0295 could negate this bearish scenario.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy involves entering short positions when price breaks below the 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart with a volume spike and a bearish engulfing pattern confirmation. Stops are placed above the 20-period EMA, and exits occur upon a retest of the 38.2% Fibonacci level or upon a bullish divergence in the RSI. This strategy would aim to capture momentum-driven declines while avoiding false breakouts by using multiple indicators for confirmation.