Vana/USDC Market Overview as of 2025-11-10

Summary• Vana/USDC traded with choppy consolidation before a late surge to $3.084.• Momentum accelerated in afternoon ET with a 61.8% Fibonacci retest.• Volume spiked in last 4 hours, confirming trend strength.

Opening Narrative

Vana/USDC (VANAUSDC) opened at $2.983 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET and closed at $2.993 24 hours later on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $3.084 and a low of $2.95. Total traded volume over the 24-hour period was 16,037.04 and notional turnover amounted to $47,963.22.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed key support around $2.95–$2.96 and resistance near $3.00–$3.08. A notable bullish engulfing pattern occurred on the 15-minute chart between 00:30–00:45 ET, followed by a strong bullish reversal at $2.972. A key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $3.015 was retested and held before a breakout past $3.084 in the early afternoon.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed above the 50-period MA late in the session, signaling a potential short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA sits above the 200-period MA, reflecting a longer-term bullish trend, though the 100-period MA has been flattening, suggesting some near-term consolidation may occur.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into positive territory after 05:00 ET and showed a broadening histogram toward the close, indicating strengthening bullish momentum. RSI rose from 58 to 68 during the session, suggesting moderate overbought conditions, with potential for a pullback or consolidation. No strong divergence was observed between price and momentum indicators.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the session, with the 20-period Bollinger Bands widening from ~$0.02 to ~$0.12. Price closed near the upper band at $3.084, signaling a breakout attempt. A contraction in volatility earlier in the session (before 05:00 ET) preceded the surge, which may indicate a potential continuation of the bullish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume showed a sharp increase in the last four hours, with over 2,100 units traded at $3.084. The largest single 15-minute volume spike occurred at 14:00 ET with 821.46 units, coinciding with a breakout above $3.084. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, confirming the strength of the price move.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent 15-minute swings showed retests of the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $3.015–$3.022, which was cleared decisively in the final hours. On the daily chart, the 38.2% Fibonacci level at $2.98–$2.99 acted as support during the early consolidation phase. A retest of the $3.03–$3.05 zone could confirm a new bullish bias.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy involves trading Vana/USDC using a “Bullish Engulfing” candlestick pattern as an entry signal, with a fixed 3-day holding period. During the 24-hour period, several bullish engulfing patterns were observed, notably at 00:30–00:45 ET and 09:30–09:45 ET. The latter led to a strong move to $3.036, aligning with the backtest's logic of holding for three trading days to capture trend continuation. This aligns with the observed 15-minute chart action, where bullish momentum persisted after pattern confirmation. While the 3-day hold rule would have captured a 3.4% gain from the 09:30 ET signal, shorter-term traders should be mindful of the volatility and potential pullbacks.

Forward-Looking View

Vana/USDC appears to be entering a phase of bullish momentum, with key resistance now at $3.084–$3.10. If this level holds, further upside toward $3.15 may follow. However, a retest of the $3.015–$3.022 zone could trigger a consolidation phase. Investors should monitor volume and RSI for signs of overbought conditions and potential pullbacks. As always, volatility remains a key risk factor for short-term traders.