Vana/USD Coin Market Overview

• VANAUSDC declined 1.78% over 24 hours, closing near key support at 4.31–4.35.
• High volatility emerged mid-session as price surged to 4.445 before retreating.
• Volume spiked to 828.43k on 22:45 ET, but price closed lower, signaling bearish divergence.
• RSI bottomed at 30 on 04:30 ET, hinting at oversold conditions, though bear momentum persisted.
• Bollinger Band contraction at 03:45 ET foreshadowed the subsequent 4.5% rebound.

At 12:00 ET, Vana/USD Coin (VANAUSDC) opened at 4.41, peaked at 4.51, troughed at 4.298, and closed at 4.313, down 1.78% on 24 hours. Total volume reached 3,783.74 and turnover amounted to $16,716.37, with a notable spike at 22:45 ET. The pair showed volatile but bear-dominant action, with price failing to sustain above 4.41 despite bullish attempts.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart displayed two distinct bearish breakdowns, notably after the 4.445 high at 03:45 ET, which failed to hold. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 00:30 ET (4.419 to 4.309) and was confirmed by subsequent bearish action. A doji formed at 04:30 ET (4.401), indicating indecision amid oversold RSI levels. Key support levels held at 4.31–4.35, and a descending triangle formed on the 15-minute chart between 4.445 and 4.31.

Moving Averages

Short-term 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed bearishly into the lower half of Bollinger Bands during the morning session. The 50-period MA provided resistance between 4.40 and 4.43. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA sat near 4.39, with the price below the 50-period at 4.395, indicating bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bearish in the late morning and remained negative for the remainder of the session, with a bearish divergence at 22:45 ET (price up, MACD down). RSI hit oversold territory at 04:30 ET (30) but failed to trigger a strong bounce. A bearish crossover in RSI occurred at 00:30 ET, aligning with the 4.419–4.309 breakdown. RSI now sits near 36, still within the oversold range.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a notable contraction at 03:45 ET before the 4.445 high, which is often a precursor to a breakout or breakdown. Price broke the upper band briefly before falling below the lower band by 06:00 ET, indicating increased volatility and bearish momentum. The bands remain wide, signaling ongoing uncertainty and potential for another directional move.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 22:45 ET (827.5) and again at 02:15 ET (156), though price failed to follow through. Turnover reached $3,554.45 during the 22:45 ET spike, but the subsequent bearish close at 4.419 suggested bearish conviction. The divergence between volume and price at 22:45 ET was bearish and may have signaled a reversal setup. By 06:00 ET, volume dried up, suggesting a lack of interest or a consolidation phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

The key 61.8% retracement of the 4.445–4.31 swing held near 4.38 and was tested at 04:45 ET (4.382). The 38.2% level at 4.41 was also a key resistance and pivot point during the 22:45 ET rally. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the broader 4.41–4.298 decline is near 4.35, which may offer short-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy outlined in the provided description involves entering long positions when RSI crosses above 30 and the MACD histogram turns positive, with a stop loss placed below the previous swing low. This aligns with the oversold RSI signal at 04:30 ET and the MACD bottoming at the same time. However, due to the bearish divergence and failure to hold 4.41–4.42, this setup may not have produced a successful trade. Short sellers may have found opportunity in the bearish engulfing pattern and RSI bearish crossover at 00:30 ET, as both indicators confirmed the breakdown.