Valero Energy Surges 3.4% Amid Venezuela Oil Hopes: Is This the Start of a Bullish Rally?

Summary
• Valero Energy (VLO) surges 3.4% to $187.92, hitting an intraday high of $189.72
• Intraday range spans $181.71 to $189.72, with turnover at 2.02M shares
• Sector leader Marathon Petroleum (MPC) gains 3.35%, signaling energy sector strength
Valero Energy’s sharp intraday rally has ignited speculation about its positioning in the Venezuela oil narrative. With U.S. refiners poised to benefit from potential crude imports, the stock’s 3.4% surge reflects optimism about refining margins and geopolitical tailwinds. The energy sector’s broader momentum, led by Marathon Petroleum, underscores a strategic shift in refining economics.

Venezuela Oil Gambit Fuels Refining Sector Optimism
Valero Energy’s 3.4% intraday surge aligns with renewed geopolitical focus on Venezuela’s oil assets. U.S. refiners, including Valero, are uniquely positioned to process heavy crude from Venezuela, which is cheaper and requires specialized refining infrastructure. Recent news of U.S. military involvement and infrastructure pledges by the Trump administration has spurred investor confidence in increased crude flows to U.S. refineries. This dynamic, combined with Valero’s existing capacity to handle heavy crude, has driven short-term demand for its stock as a proxy for Venezuela’s untapped energy potential.

Energy Sector Rally: Marathon Petroleum Mirrors Valero’s Momentum
The energy sector’s broader rally, led by Marathon Petroleum’s 3.35% gain, highlights a synchronized move in refining stocks. Both Valero and Marathon have historically benefited from heavy crude processing capabilities, a niche that aligns with Venezuela’s resource profile. While Valero’s 3.4% gain slightly outpaces Marathon’s 3.35%, the sector-wide optimism suggests a structural shift in refining economics, driven by geopolitical developments and refining margin expansion.

Options and ETFs to Capitalize on Refining Sector Volatility
• 200-day average: 149.12 (well below current price)
• RSI: 67.02 (neutral to overbought)
• MACD: 3.40 (bullish divergence)
• Bollinger Bands: Upper at 189.96, Middle at 170.72, Lower at 151.47
Valero Energy’s technicals suggest a continuation of its bullish trend, with key resistance near $190 and support at $170.72. The stock’s 3.4% intraday gain, coupled with a 3.40 MACD and 67.02 RSI, indicates strong momentum. For traders, the VLO20260123C187.5 call option (strike $187.5, 3.40% leverage) and VLO20260123P182.5 put option (strike $182.5, 82.64% leverage) stand out. The call offers moderate delta (0.55) with high leverage, ideal for a 5% upside scenario (projected price $197.32, payoff $9.82). The put, with a delta of -0.29 and 82.64% leverage, provides downside protection if the stock consolidates. Both contracts have high turnover (45,541 and 7,004) and moderate implied volatility (32.08% and 38.27%), balancing risk and reward. Aggressive bulls may consider VLO20260123C187.5 into a breakout above $190.

Backtest Valero Energy Stock Performance
The backtest of Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VLO) after a 3% intraday increase from 2022 to now shows favorable performance metrics. The 3-day win rate is 52.66%, the 10-day win rate is 56.46%, and the 30-day win rate is 55.51%, indicating a higher probability of positive returns in the short term. The maximum return during the backtest period was 5.75%, which occurred on day 59, suggesting that VLO can deliver decent gains even after a 3% surge.

Valero Energy’s Venezuela Play: A High-Conviction Trade for 2026
Valero Energy’s 3.4% intraday surge reflects its strategic positioning in the Venezuela oil narrative, with refining margins and geopolitical tailwinds driving momentum. The stock’s technicals and options activity suggest a continuation of this trend, particularly if crude flows to U.S. refineries accelerate. Sector leader Marathon Petroleum’s 3.35% gain reinforces the sector’s strength. Investors should monitor the $190 resistance level and $170.72 support zone. For a high-conviction trade, consider the VLO20260123C187.5 call option to capitalize on a potential breakout.