Valero Energy Rises 0.54% Amid Key Technical Crossroads At $155 Support

Valero Energy (VLO) closed at $157.57 on September 15, 2025, rising 0.54% amidst recent consolidation. This analysis examines key technical dynamics based on the provided historical data.
Candlestick Theory
Recent sessions show indecision after the September 9th peak at $163.02. The September 10th long upper wick ($162.71 high, $158.50 close) signaled rejection near $163 resistance. The current price trades between established support near $155.80 (September 15th low) and resistance at $160.40 (September 11th high). A confirmed break above $160.40 would suggest bullish continuation.
Moving Average Theory
Using proxy calculations due to data limitations, the 50-day MA (approx. $148-152 range) remains above the 200-day MA (approx. $135-138), indicating an intermediate-term uptrend. However, recent prices testing the 50-day MA after dipping below $156 signal vulnerability. Sustained trade below the 50-day MA could trigger a bearish trend shift, while holding above $155 reinforces bullish structure.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD likely shows a bearish crossover emerging on daily charts, with momentum weakening after the September peak. KDJ oscillators appear to be retreating from overbought territory (>80%K), suggesting waning buying pressure. Neither indicator currently signals oversold conditions, implying potential for further near-term consolidation or downside.
Bollinger Bands
The September volatility expansion (bands widening from $150 to $163) has contracted, with price now trading near the mid-band. This suggests reduced directional momentum. A decisive move above the upper band ($160-161) or below the lower band ($153-154) would signal the next volatility-driven trend phase.
Volume-Price Relationship
Heavy selling volume accompanied the September 10th rejection ($662M), validating the $160-163 resistance zone. Recent up days (e.g., September 15th) show moderate volume, lacking strong conviction. Down days exhibit declining volume intensity, suggesting bearish exhaustion near $155 support—sustained rallies require volume expansion above $160.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
RSI hovers near 53 (neutral zone), down from overbought conditions (>70) in early September. While momentum has cooled, the lack of oversold readings (<30) combined with price consolidation suggests intermediate support. A drop below 40 RSI would signal accelerating downside risk.
Fibonacci Retracement
Drawing from the swing low of $108.84 (April 21, 2025) to the high of $163.02 (September 9, 2025), key retracement levels emerge. The 38.2% level at $141.50 held as support in late August. Current prices hover above the 23.6% retracement ($155.21), which aligns with recent lows—a decisive close below this level may trigger a slide toward $148 (38.2%).
Confluence and Divergence
Confluence exists at $155-$156, where Fibonacci support, the 50-day MA proxy, and recent swing lows converge—a critical bullish defense zone. Bearish divergence appears between price peaks (lower highs from September 9th to September 15th) and lagging RSI/MACD signals, suggesting fading upside momentum. Volume divergence on recovery attempts further questions trend sustainability. Probabilistically, a break below $155 would favor a deeper correction toward $148, while reclaiming $160 with volume would invalidate near-term bearish signals.