Valero Energy Jumps 3.43% On Heavy Volume As Technicals Signal Bullish Momentum

Valero Energy (VLO) advanced 3.43% to $148.67 on July 8, 2025, supported by robust volume. The following technical analysis synthesizes multiple methodologies to assess potential price trajectories.
Candlestick Theory
The July 8 session formed a decisive bullish candle, closing near the day’s high ($148.97) after a rebound from $143.78. This pattern breached the prior resistance at $145.84 (July 3 high), indicating bullish follow-through after the July 7 bearish candle failed to sustain downside momentum. Key support now resides at $134.25 (July 1 low), while resistance emerges at $149–$150. The breakout candle’s long real body and minimal wick suggest conviction behind the upward move, though caution is warranted near psychological resistance.
Moving Average Theory
The 50-day, 100-day, and 200-day moving averages exhibit a bullish alignment (50 > 100 > 200), confirming a long-term uptrend. The current price trades significantly above all three averages, with the 50-day SMA (approximately $138) acting as dynamic support. The expanding distance between the 50-day and 200-day SMA reflects accelerating bullish momentum. Short-term pullbacks may find initial support near the 50-day SMA.
MACD & KDJ Indicators
MACD shows a bullish crossover, with the MACD line above the signal line since late June, reinforcing positive momentum. However, the KDJ indicator signals overbought conditions with K-values exceeding 90% in recent sessions, coupled with J-values near 100. This divergence suggests near-term exhaustion risk despite upward momentum. While MACD supports continuation, KDJ’s extreme reading implies heightened vulnerability to profit-taking.
Bollinger Bands
A pronounced bandwidth expansion occurred during the July 8 breakout, reflecting surging volatility. The price closed near the upper band, typically indicating overbought territory during uptrends. Prior band constriction in late June preceded the current volatility surge. The breach above the upper band, while bullish, historically aligns with short-term consolidation phases. Support is anticipated near the 20-day SMA (approximately $142).
Volume-Price Relationship
The 15.6% volume surge to 7.59 million shares on July 8 provided robust confirmation of the bullish breakout, exceeding the 20-day average volume by 35%. This marked the highest volume session since April’s volatility, suggesting institutional accumulation. Volume contracted 44% during the July 7 pullback, indicating lack of conviction behind downside moves. The volume-price synergy validates the sustainability of the current uptrend.
Relative Strength Index (RSI)
The 14-day RSI currently reads ~78, entering overbought territory (>70). While RSI divergence was absent during recent highs, this reading historically correlates with short-term consolidation in VLO. It should be noted that RSI can remain elevated in strong trending markets, but current levels may attract profit-taking. A retreat below 70 could signal near-term cooling.
Fibonacci Retracement
Drawing the retracement from the May 12 swing low ($130.49) to the July 8 high ($148.97) reveals key technical levels: 23.6% ($144.61), 38.2% ($141.91), and 50% ($139.73). The 23.6% level aligns with the July 3 close ($144.58), establishing immediate support. The price recently rebounded from near the 38.2% retracement in early July, suggesting this zone may contain future pullbacks. Confluence exists between the 50% retracement ($139.73) and the 50-day moving average.
Concluding Synthesis
Multiple indicators converge to suggest a structurally bullish trend for Valero Energy, confirmed by moving average alignment, volume validation, and MACD momentum. Critical support is layered between $144.61 (Fibonacci 23.6%) and $139.73 (Fibonacci 50% + 50-day SMA). However, Bollinger Band expansion, RSI readings >75, and KDJ overbought signals flag heightened near-term consolidation risk. A decisive break above $150 could extend gains toward $155 resistance, while failure to hold $144.61 may trigger a retest of $141.91 support. While probabilistic indicators suggest a temporary pause is likely after the recent surge, the overarching technical framework remains constructive.