Vail Resorts Cuts Earnings Outlook Amid 60% Snowfall Shortfall in Rockies

Vail Resorts Inc. (MTN) cut its fiscal 2026 earnings forecast due to unusually low early-season snowfall in the Rocky Mountains, a critical region for its ski operations. The company said the snowfall shortfall, nearly 60% below the 30-year average, limited terrain openings and hurt guest spending.

The company now expects full-year Resort Reported EBITDA to fall just below the low end of its previous guidance of $842 million to $898 million. This adjustment is contingent on improved conditions by President's Day weekend.

Skier visits across North America were down 20% year-over-year through January, with lift revenue dropping 1.8%. Ancillary revenue from dining, retail, and ski school also declined sharply, by 15% and 6% respectively.

Why Did This Happen?

The snow drought in the western US, particularly in Colorado and Utah, has been one of the worst in 30 years. November and December snowfall in Vail's western US resorts was about 50% lower than the 30-year average. In the Rockies, snowfall was down nearly 60%.

As a result, only about 11% of skiable terrain was open in December, significantly below normal operating levels. Conditions in areas like Tahoe and Whistler were also near historic lows.

How Did Markets React?

Vail Resorts shares fell more than 2.7% in early trading on the news. The stock had already seen a 29% decline in 2025, which analysts have attributed to both weather and pricing pressures.

Investors remain cautious as the company faces an uncertain season outlook. Jefferies upgraded Vail to Buy, citing its strong brand and potential for 2027 growth, but noted the current environment remains challenging.

What Are Analysts Watching Next?

Despite the current challenges, some analysts are optimistic about the long-term potential for Vail Resorts. Jefferies expects a 4% year-over-year increase in volumes and revenue in 2027, with adjusted EBITDA reaching $933 million.

The firm also pointed to leadership changes, pricing strategies, and improved execution as factors that could drive earnings growth. However, near-term risks remain, including weather volatility and capital spending for VenueNation.

Vail's shift toward subscription-based passes is another factor analysts are watching. The company is adapting to unpredictable conditions by encouraging customers to purchase multi-region passes that provide flexibility in case of regional snow shortages.

Meanwhile, eastern US resorts, such as Stowe and Okemo in Vermont, have reported strong early season conditions. These performances have partially offset some of the declines in the western US.

The ski industry is now closely monitoring snowfall projections and the potential impact of La Niña and the polar vortex on the remainder of the 2025–2026 season. Vail's updated outlook and market response highlight the growing importance of weather resilience in the leisure and travel sector. For investors, the company's ability to manage these risks and maintain customer loyalty could define its performance in the coming months.