Utilities Face Increasing Scrutiny in LA Wildfires

As the devastating wildfires in Los Angeles continue to rage, the spotlight is increasingly turning to the role of utilities in these catastrophic events. With preliminary damages estimated at $50 billion and more than 100,000 residents evacuated, the public is demanding answers and accountability.

The wildfires, fueled by extreme weather conditions and climate change, have raised serious questions about the safety and reliability of the region's power infrastructure. Utility-related ignitions have historically been correlated with catastrophic wildfires, and regulatory changes now require California utilities to analyze and mitigate wildfire risk.

Pacific Gas and Electric Company (PG&E), Southern California Edison Company (SCE), and San Diego Gas and Electric Company (SDG&E) have adopted data science methodology to assess wildfire risk. However, their risk models lack covariates capturing extreme weather effects and mechanisms to incorporate causal linkage between likelihood and consequence models. Consequently, risk models incorrectly prioritize risk drivers, such as vegetation, equipment, or external agents. Additionally, match-drop wildfire spread calculations fail to represent large fires due to limited run time, and risk models do not incorporate the health effects of wildfire smoke.

Power shutoffs, an effective mitigation during extreme weather events, cause significant public harm. "Hardening" programs, especially undergrounding lines, are effective but their expense threatens public health for the poorest. Accurate balancing of wildfire risks, risk of power loss, and financial impacts on vulnerable populations, in conjunction with application of new technology, is required to address the utility wildfire problem.