Usual/Tether Market Overview: Bearish Momentum and Key Support Levels

• Price declined by ~9.4% over 24 hours, closing at 0.0638 from an open of 0.0668.
• RSI dipped to oversold territory, suggesting potential short-term reversal.
• Volatility expanded as Bollinger Bands widened, indicating growing uncertainty.
• A large-volume bearish engulfing pattern appeared at the 15:30 ET 15-minute candle.
• Turnover spiked during the sharp decline from 0.068 to 0.0638, signaling significant selling pressure.

Price Action and Context

At 12:00 ET-1, Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0668 and traded to a high of 0.0679 before closing at 0.0638 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour low was recorded at 0.0617, marking a significant drop. Total volume was ~111,676,696.7 units, while notional turnover was approximately $7,140,184 (based on USDT). The market saw a pronounced bearish move after 15:30 ET, with price dropping nearly 7% in a single 15-minute candle.

Structure & Formations

The price action displayed a large-volume bearish engulfing pattern on the 15:30 ET candle, confirming a shift in sentiment. A key support level appears to be forming around 0.0616–0.0631, where price found a temporary floor after the sharp sell-off. A doji near 0.0632 at 15:45 ET and a morning session high-low reversal suggest short-term indecision, though bearish momentum remains dominant.

Volatility, Momentum, and Indicators

Bollinger Bands expanded notably during the sharp decline, indicating increased volatility and trader uncertainty. The RSI dipped into oversold territory (<30) by the end of the 24-hour period, hinting that a bounce could be due, though not necessarily a reversal. The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the bearish territory, reinforcing the downward trend. Volume increased sharply during the sell-off, confirming the bearish bias and aligning with the price drop.

Fibonacci Retracements and Key Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 0.0617–0.0681 swing, price currently rests near the 61.8% level (~0.0634), acting as a psychological support. If the move breaks below 0.0631, the next key level to watch is the 78.6% retracement (~0.0623), which coincides with the recent 15:45 ET candle's low. On the upside, resistance is likely to form near 0.0640–0.0643, where the price previously reversed.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on detecting bearish engulfing patterns followed by a confirmation candle below the prior swing low, while RSI dips into oversold territory. This combination is used to trigger a short position with a stop-loss placed above the engulfing high. Given today’s price action — particularly the bearish engulfing pattern and oversold RSI — the strategy would have generated a signal. Over the next 24 hours, a test of the 0.0631–0.0623 support range could provide validation or invalidation of the short setup.