Usual/Tether Market Overview (2025-11-06)

Summary
• Price surged to 0.0346 before retracing to 0.0315, indicating volatile intraday swings.
• Volume spiked during the midday push to 0.0346, but failed to confirm further bullish momentum.
• RSI overbought levels signaled a potential reversal, aligning with the bearish consolidation later in the session.

The 24-hour trading session for Usual/Tether (USUALUSDT) saw a dramatic move from an open of 0.0311 at 12:00 ET − 1 to a high of 0.0346 at 19:30 ET. The price closed at 0.0315 at 12:00 ET, down -0.51% on the day. Total trading volume reached 107,966,634.00, with a notional turnover of approximately 3,394.00. These figures suggest heightened interest, though a bearish reversal in the latter half of the session tempered bullish momentum.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute OHLC data reveals a strong bullish candle at 19:30 ET, reaching 0.0346, followed by a bearish engulfing pattern at 19:45 ET and 20:00 ET. A key resistance appears to form near 0.0346, while support levels at 0.0322 and 0.0315 were retested multiple times. A doji formed around 06:30 ET, indicating indecision and potential reversal. These patterns suggest that price may struggle to break above 0.0346 unless volume confirms a follow-through.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a bullish crossover at 19:30 ET but diverged into bearish territory by 21:00 ET. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs appear to be converging toward a flat trend, suggesting the market is in a consolidation phase. This implies that a break above or below the 0.0346–0.0315 range could trigger a new directional move.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed above the signal line at 19:30 ET, confirming the bullish push, but quickly diverged, aligning with the bearish reversal. The RSI peaked near overbought levels at 75 at 19:45 ET, reinforcing the likelihood of a short-term correction. Currently, RSI sits at 47, indicating balanced momentum. Traders should watch for RSI to dip below 30 for a potential oversold rebound.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the 19:30–20:30 ET window, with the bands widening to 0.0361 and 0.0303. Price tested the upper band at 19:45 ET but was quickly pulled back to the lower half of the band by 21:30 ET. The narrowing of the bands after 01:00 ET suggests a potential breakout could be imminent. A break above 0.0346 may re-engage bullish sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

The highest volume candle occurred at 19:30 ET with a 10,148,426.80 volume spike, confirming the surge to 0.0346. However, the subsequent bearish candles at 19:45 ET and 20:00 ET showed high volume but limited price movement, indicating a potential reversal. Turnover also spiked in the 19:30–20:00 ET window before declining, which may indicate profit-taking. Divergence between volume and price during the latter half of the session suggests weakening bullish conviction.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 19:30–21:30 ET swing, the 61.8% level sits at 0.0328, a level that was tested and rejected multiple times. The 38.2% level at 0.0336 saw limited action but could serve as a potential pivot for a short-term bounce. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the recent 0.0346–0.0315 move is at 0.0330, which could become a key support or resistance area.

Backtest Hypothesis

The bearish engulfing pattern identified on 19:45–20:00 ET could serve as a potential entry signal for a 3-day short. A valid setup requires a bearish candle with a body that fully engulfs the previous bullish candle and occurs near a key resistance level. If applied to historical data from 2022–2025, this strategy could be backtested to assess its profitability on similar setups across the USUALUSDT pair.