Usual/Tether Market Overview (2025-10-29)

• Price action shows a volatile 24-hour range from 0.0295 to 0.032 with a bearish close near the day’s low.
• Volume peaks at 1779766.7 and 1678409.8 in midday selloffs, indicating strong downward pressure.
• RSI and MACD suggest overbought conditions earlier, now shifting to oversold territory.
• Bollinger Bands show a late-day contraction, signaling potential breakout or continuation.
• A bearish engulfing pattern forms late in the 15-minute chart, confirming downward momentum.

The Usual/Tether pair (USUALUSDT) opened at 0.0315 on October 28, 2025, reaching a high of 0.032 before closing at 0.031 on October 29. Over the 24-hour window, total volume amounted to approximately 136,832,055.6 and turnover totaled 4.12 million. Price action revealed a bearish trend, marked by sharp declines and increasing bearish conviction. Key support levels were tested near 0.0305–0.0303, while resistance at 0.0315–0.0318 was decisively broken.

A bearish engulfing pattern emerged around 19:30 ET, as a large bearish candle engulfed the prior bullish structure, signaling a possible reversal. A similar pattern repeated at 20:15 ET, confirming further selling pressure. The RSI dipped into oversold territory during the late session, suggesting potential for a short-term rebound, though bearish momentum remains strong. The MACD crossed below the signal line, reinforcing the downtrend and suggesting that short-term bearish positions could be justified.

Bollinger Bands contracted in the late hours, signaling a period of low volatility followed by a sharp break below the lower band. This indicates potential for a continuation of the bearish trend. Volume was notably high during the key sell-off periods, confirming the strength of the move. Fibonacci retracement levels from recent swings (0.032 to 0.0295) align with the 0.0305–0.0308 levels, suggesting these may serve as near-term targets or zones of reaccumulation.

The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart dipped below the 50-period line, reinforcing bearish bias. On the daily chart, the price is below both 50 and 200-period lines, indicating a broader bearish trend. The convergence of technical indicators and volume patterns suggests that the current bearish bias is well-anchored, with little immediate resistance above current levels.

Backtest Hypothesis
The bearish signals identified—particularly the bearish engulfing patterns and RSI oversold readings—lend themselves well to a backtest using a 1-day holding strategy. Given the high volume and confirmed bearish structure, a backtest could be structured as follows:
1. Asset Selection: Use USUALUSDT as the primary proxy.
2. Entry Signal: Enter short positions at the open of the candle following a confirmed bearish engulfing pattern.
3. Exit Rule: Close positions at the end of the next 24-hour period or earlier if a stop-loss (e.g., 3% from entry) is triggered.
4. Risk Control: Implement a 3% stop-loss and a 1.5% take-profit to manage risk-reward.

This approach could be tested against historical 15-minute data to evaluate its effectiveness in capturing the bearish momentum observed.