USU Software AG (HMSE:OSP2): Private Ownership, Volatility, and the Contrarian Case for Value

In the volatile world of European tech stocks, USU Software AG (HMSE:OSP2) stands out as a paradox. Listed on the Hamburg Stock Exchange under the ticker OSP2.HM, the company has navigated a turbulent 2025 marked by a 52% week-on-week stock price drop, a net loss of €5.5 million over the trailing twelve months, and a delisting from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in July 2024. Yet, beneath the surface of this volatility lies a compelling case for contrarian investors willing to dissect its ownership structure and strategic moves.

Ownership Concentration: A Double-Edged Sword

USU Software AG's ownership is dominated by private entities, with AUSUM GmbH holding a staggering 54% stake. This majority control grants AUSUM significant influence over governance and strategic decisions, a structure that can streamline decision-making but also raises concerns about alignment with public shareholders. Institutional investors hold 11%, while insiders, including CEO Bernhard Oberschmidt, own €18 million worth of shares. Retail investors, meanwhile, hold 25-31%, a sizeable but non-controlling stake.

This concentration of power in private hands could be a red flag for some. AUSUM's control may prioritize long-term value creation over short-term shareholder appeasement, but it also limits transparency. For instance, the company's recent dividend of €1.70 per share—yielding 14.5%—was not supported by earnings or free cash flow, a risk that private stakeholders may be more willing to absorb than public ones.

Financial Performance: A Tale of Two Sides

USU's financials tell a story of mixed signals. While the company's price-to-earnings (PE) ratio of 28.98x aligns with the industry average, its trailing twelve-month net loss and 0.69% revenue decline in 2024 highlight operational challenges. The stock's 49.48% annual drop and 47.53% discount to its 200-day moving average reflect investor skepticism.

However, USU's strategic pivot to software-as-a-service (SaaS) and cloud-native solutions offers a glimmer of hope. The acquisition of saasmetrix, a SaaS management provider, and the launch of an automated FinOps solution demonstrate a commitment to innovation. These moves position USU to capitalize on the growing demand for cloud cost management, a sector projected to expand at a 15% CAGR through 2030.

The upcoming Q2 2025 earnings report, scheduled for August 27, 2025, will be pivotal. Investors will scrutinize whether revenue stabilizes, losses narrow, and the SaaS transition gains traction. A positive report could trigger a rebound, while continued underperformance may deepen the discount.

Delisting and Regulatory Implications

The delisting from the Frankfurt Stock Exchange in July 2024 removed USU from post-admission obligations, reducing transparency but also regulatory overhead. While this may streamline operations, it raises concerns about accountability. The absence of analyst coverage and the lack of quarterly financial disclosures mean investors must rely on limited data, increasing the risk of information asymmetry.

Yet, this delisting could also be a strategic advantage. With reduced compliance costs, USU may reinvest in R&D or debt reduction, bolstering long-term resilience. The company's inclusion in the Gartner® Market Guide for Infrastructure Monitoring Tools in 2025 underscores its technical credibility, a rare asset in a post-delisting environment.

Contrarian Case for Value

For investors with a high risk tolerance, USU's volatility and undervaluation present a compelling opportunity. The stock's 14.5% dividend yield—one of the highest in its sector—is a magnet for income-focused investors, even if it's currently unsustainable. A recovery in earnings or a strategic pivot could justify the current valuation.

Moreover, the private ownership structure, while opaque, may enable bold moves that public companies cannot. AUSUM's controlling stake could facilitate mergers, acquisitions, or restructuring without shareholder resistance. The recent AutoQML project completion and SaaS expansion hint at such potential.

Risks and Caution

Critics argue that USU's financial instability and governance risks outweigh its potential. The 52% week-on-week drop in July 2025 highlights the stock's susceptibility to market sentiment. Additionally, the lack of institutional oversight post-delisting could exacerbate volatility. Investors must also weigh the company's 3 warning signs—ranging from earnings sustainability to operational efficiency—before committing.

Conclusion: A Calculated Bet

USU Software AG is a stock for the discerning investor. Its private ownership structure and recent volatility are legitimate concerns, but they also create a scenario where mispricings can be exploited. The key lies in monitoring the Q2 2025 earnings report and the success of its SaaS transition. For those who believe in the company's long-term vision and are comfortable with short-term turbulence, USU's discounted valuation and strategic momentum could offer a rewarding contrarian play.

Investment Advice: Consider a small, risk-managed position in USU Software AG for investors who can tolerate high volatility and are prepared to hold through the Q2 earnings catalyst. Diversify with sector peers and set strict stop-loss thresholds to mitigate downside risk.