USTCUSDT Market Overview: TerraClassicUSD/Tether (2025-10-10)

• Price surged to a 24-hour high of $0.01124 before correcting sharply, suggesting short-term volatility.
• Strong volume and turnover expansion signaled during the morning ET, especially after 11:45 ET.
• RSI and MACD showed bullish momentum early, followed by bearish divergence in the afternoon.
• Key support levels at $0.01094–$0.01088 were tested and partially held.
• Bollinger Band contraction in early morning ET hinted at potential breakout, which was followed by a significant move.

TerraClassicUSD/Tether (USTCUSDT) opened at $0.0107 on October 9 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $0.01124, and closed at $0.01069 by 12:00 ET on October 10. The 24-hour volume amounted to 30,215,856.0, with a notional turnover of $320,982.15. Price action was marked by a sharp rally followed by a pullback, indicating heightened market interest and volatility.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour price chart displayed a bullish breakout above a key resistance level at $0.01104, which was followed by a strong pullback to a support level at $0.01094. A large bearish engulfing pattern formed after 15:00 ET, confirming a reversal in sentiment. Doji candles emerged around $0.01085, suggesting indecision and potential turning points. Key support levels at $0.01094 and $0.01088 were tested multiple times but only partially held, indicating a fragile bearish bias in the short term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price moved above the 20-EMA and 50-EMA for most of the morning, reinforcing bullish momentum. However, by late afternoon, price fell below both moving averages, signaling a shift in trend. The 50-SMA on the daily chart remained above the 100- and 200-SMA, suggesting medium-term bullish bias, though recent price action hinted at potential bearish divergence.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bullish during the early hours of October 10, with a positive crossover and strong histogram expansion. RSI surged to overbought territory (above 70) by 04:15 ET, confirming bullish momentum. However, RSI dipped below 50 in the afternoon, aligning with bearish price action and diverging from the rising MACD. This RSI-MACD divergence suggests a potential bearish reversal may be in the works.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands exhibited a brief contraction early on October 10, setting the stage for a breakout. Price surged above the upper band shortly after, indicating a high-volatility move. The pullback brought price back within the bands, where it found support near the mid-band. The current width of the bands reflects moderate volatility, with a potential for another expansion if price tests key levels again.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the morning hours, particularly between 11:45 ET and 12:15 ET, when price reached a 24-hour high. Notional turnover spiked from ~$3,000 to over $100,000 during this period, confirming bullish conviction. However, after 15:00 ET, volume began to taper off despite continued bearish price movement, suggesting waning momentum and potential exhaustion in the downward leg. Divergence between volume and price action highlights a cautious outlook.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci retracement levels were observed during the major morning rally. Price pulled back to the 61.8% retracement level at $0.01096, where it found support before falling further. The 38.2% retracement at $0.01109 failed to hold, indicating stronger bearish pressure. On the daily chart, Fibonacci levels suggest $0.01065 as a potential target for the next downward leg if bearish momentum continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical setup — including the overbought RSI, bullish breakout followed by bearish divergence, and volume confirmation during the initial rally — a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short bias triggered after the bearish engulfing candle at 15:00 ET. A stop-loss might be placed just above the upper Bollinger Band or at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level, with a target at the 61.8% level or below. This approach would capitalize on the bearish reversal confirmed by multiple indicators and volume dynamics.