USTCUSDT Market Overview: September 18, 2025

• USTCUSDT advanced 0.7% over 24 hours, driven by sustained buying above 0.01280.
• Volatility spiked midday, with price testing 0.01316 as a potential short-term peak.
• RSI neutrality and MACD divergence suggest potential for consolidation.
• Strong volume during 14:45–15:00 ET signaled a turning point in sentiment.
• Bollinger Band contraction hints at potential for a breakout or retest of key levels.

TerraClassicUSD/Tether (USTCUSDT) opened at 0.01277 on September 17 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.01326, a low of 0.01270, and closed at 0.01320 on September 18 at 12:00 ET. Total volume for the period was 41.4 million, with a notional turnover of ~$5.5 million, indicating active participation.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour chart revealed a bullish bias, with price forming multiple higher lows and breaking above the 0.01299 resistance level. A notable bullish engulfing pattern occurred at 0.01293 on September 17 at 19:30 ET, followed by a continuation above 0.01304. Key support was found at 0.01299, while resistance appears to be forming near 0.01315, coinciding with a prior intraday high. A doji formed at 0.01306 on September 18 at 04:45 ET, suggesting indecision and a possible consolidation phase.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price traded above the 20- and 50-period SMAs, signaling a short-term bullish trend. The 50-period MA crossed above the 100-period MA on the daily chart, reinforcing a positive bias. Price remains above the 200-period MA, indicating long-term buy interest.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD showed a bullish crossover mid-morning, with a subsequent divergence between price and histogram suggesting potential for a pullback. RSI hovered near 50 all day, indicating a neutral zone without overbought or oversold extremes. The RSI’s lack of saturation implies there is room for further movement, both higher and lower.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the 14:45–15:45 ET period, pushing price near the upper band. A contraction in band width followed, suggesting a potential breakout or retest of the 0.01315–0.01326 range. Price is currently near the midpoint of the bands, indicating no immediate pressure to break out in either direction.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked significantly between 14:45–15:00 ET, coinciding with the price surge to 0.01326. This suggests strong buying conviction at higher levels. Notional turnover mirrored this pattern, with a peak of ~$13.5 million during that period. Divergences were minimal, indicating alignment between volume and price action.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying the 38.2% and 61.8% levels to the 0.01270–0.01326 swing, key retracement levels appear at ~0.01304 and ~0.01315. These levels align closely with observed support and resistance, reinforcing the likelihood of price action bouncing or breaking at these levels in the coming 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy suggests a breakout and trailing stop approach, where long positions are triggered upon breaking the upper Bollinger Band or confirming a bullish engulfing pattern, and exited using a 5% trailing stop. Given the recent volatility expansion and the confirmed bullish engulfing pattern at 0.01293, the current environment appears favorable for the strategy’s application. Price action has also shown strong volume confirmation at key levels, supporting the use of price patterns as a signal.