USTCUSDT Market Overview – October 12, 2025

• USTCUSDT traded in a tight range overnight, breaking out with a bullish engulfing pattern early morning.
• A 15-minute RSI surge above 60 indicates rising momentum after a multi-hour consolidation phase.
• Volatility expanded as the pair moved from a 0.0076-0.0078 range to a 0.0076-0.0081 range during the 24-hour window.
• The 20-period 15-minute MA provided support early morning, while the 50-period MA acted as dynamic resistance.
• A key 0.00785 support held twice before price retested 0.0080–0.0081 as new resistance.

TerraClassicUSD/Tether (USTCUSDT) 24-Hour Summary

TerraClassicUSD/Tether (USTCUSDT) opened at 0.00775 on October 11 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.00822 before closing at 0.0081 at 12:00 ET on October 12. The 24-hour period saw a total volume of 66,805,610.0 and a turnover of $538,193,777.00 (calculated using average close prices). The pair displayed moderate volatility with a clear bullish breakout in the early morning hours.

Structure & Formations

The market displayed a bullish engulfing pattern around 05:45–06:00 ET as the candle opened at 0.0079 and closed at 0.00795 after opening at 0.00788, signaling potential follow-through buying. A notable 15-minute doji formed at 03:45 ET near the 0.00756 level, indicating indecision at a key support area. Price tested the 0.00785 support twice, forming a potential key level for future bounces or breakdowns. A 0.0081–0.00822 high cluster emerged as a potential short-term resistance zone.

Moving Averages

The 20-period 15-minute moving average provided a dynamic support during the 02:00–06:00 ET window, while the 50-period MA acted as a resistance, particularly between 06:00–08:00 ET. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA was at ~0.00783 and the 200-period MA at ~0.00775, suggesting the pair is currently above both key longer-term averages, reinforcing a mildly bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The RSI on the 15-minute chart surged above 60 around 06:30–08:00 ET, indicating growing bullish momentum. A positive divergence in MACD formed around 06:30 ET as price continued to rise while the histogram widened, suggesting the momentum was likely to persist. The RSI later pulled back to ~56, indicating a moderation of bullish pressure, though it remains above neutral levels.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility widened as the bands expanded from a 0.0076-0.0078 range to a 0.0076-0.0081 range during the 24-hour window. Price traded near the upper band for much of the morning before consolidating near the mid-band in the afternoon. A contraction in the bands occurred between 03:00–05:00 ET, which was followed by a sharp breakout suggesting potential continuation toward 0.0082–0.0083.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the morning breakout, reaching over 6,680,561 at 15:00 ET, confirming the price move. A divergence in turnover appeared between 15:00–17:00 ET as volume declined while price remained elevated, suggesting potential exhaustion in the short-term rally. Notional turnover remained consistent with price direction during the 06:00–10:00 ET window, supporting the validity of the breakout.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, a key 0.00785–0.0080 swing saw price retest the 61.8% level at 0.00794 during the 08:00–10:00 ET window before breaking higher. The daily Fibonacci levels showed a 0.00770–0.00822 swing with 61.8% at 0.00796 and 38.2% at 0.00790. Price held the 0.00790–0.00796 range for much of the 24-hour window before breaking higher.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on breakout setups using Fibonacci levels and Bollinger Band contractions as entry triggers. It uses a 15-minute time frame with a 20-period Bollinger Band and a 20/50-period MA crossover for confirmation. The hypothesis is that following a Bollinger Band contraction and a Fibonacci retest, a long entry at the next candle’s open with a stop below the prior swing low can yield a statistically significant edge. This is supported by today’s action, where a post-contraction breakout occurred at 06:30 ET, aligning with the proposed setup.