USTCUSDT Market Overview

Summary
• Price declined from 0.00735 to 0.00691 over 24 hours amid increased bearish momentum.
• RSI below 30 and negative MACD suggest oversold conditions but bearish continuation risk.
• Volatility expanded with high turnover near key Fibonacci levels and breakdown of Bollinger Bands.

TerraClassicUSD/Tether (USTCUSDT) opened at 0.00733 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.00691 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-12. The 24-hour low reached 0.00684, while the high hit 0.00737. Total volume amounted to 130,142,800.0 and total turnover stood at ~$930,000 (assuming a notional size of 1 lot per trade). Price action suggests bearish exhaustion but remains underpinned by key support levels.

Structure & Formations

USTCUSDT has exhibited several bearish reversal and continuation patterns over the 24-hour period. A distinct bearish engulfing pattern was observed during the early evening hours (ET), followed by a series of lower lows and lower highs, indicating a strengthening bearish bias. Notably, a key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the recent swing high at 0.00737 was tested and failed as support near 0.0071. This level has since acted as a short-term resistance on the rebound.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price closed below the 20- and 50-period SMAs, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 20-period SMA is at ~0.0073, while the 50-period is near ~0.00733. Both lines are bearishly sloped. Daily indicators suggest further weakness, with price below all key multi-period (50, 100, 200) moving averages.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative in the afternoon, with the histogram expanding as the bearish momentum deepened. RSI fell below 30 in the late evening, signaling an oversold condition. However, the divergence between RSI and price suggests further downside potential rather than immediate reversal. RSI may struggle to find immediate buyers near 30, indicating the market remains in a bearish phase.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the late ET hours, with price dropping below the 2σ lower band. A bearish breakout occurred from a period of contraction early in the window, confirming the breakdown. Price has remained near the lower band for most of the 24-hour window, suggesting a high probability of continued bearish pressure unless a strong bounce is confirmed above the 0.00723 level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the sharp decline from 0.00737 to 0.00696, with a peak of ~13,480,425 at 16:15 ET. This high-volume move confirms the bearish breakdown. Notional turnover also surged in this period. However, volume during the attempted rebound in the overnight hours remained muted, indicating weak conviction in the short-term bounce.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at ~0.0071 failed as support and now acts as resistance. The 38.2% level (~0.00727) was briefly tested in the early morning hours but rejected, with price closing below it. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement from the broader downtrend remains a key level to monitor for further consolidation or breakdown.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the technical setup observed—bearish engulfing patterns, oversold RSI, and breakdown below key moving averages—a backtesting strategy could be built using a Bearish Engulfing pattern as a sell trigger. The exit would aim to cover short positions at the next defined resistance level, which could be the most recent swing high or a key Fibonacci retracement level. The strategy would be tested using the USTCUSDT 15-minute data from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-12, with risk controlled via fixed position sizing and a stop-loss placed at the recent swing low or 2σ upper band.